Which midterm narrative is most fun and least useful – midterm polling or the continued question of John Fetterman’s party affiliation status? At least I know which story requires less math. Usually.
John Fetterman has raised eyebrows across the political spectrum for his sudden emergence as a sharp critic of the socialist wing of the Democrat Party. His video introduction of fellow Pennsylvanian Dave McCormick at the GOP’s midterm convention this month infuriated progressives. The financial scope of their partnership should have concerned them more, as I noted at the time when it was reported by the Washington Sun (formerly NOTUS):
Speculation has grown rampant within both parties about Fetterman’s political future in recent months following his criticism of Democrats while their odds of taking control of the Senate have grown ahead of the November midterms. Some former Fetterman aides have expressed concern he could leave the party in a scenario where Democrats win a Senate majority by a single seat in November, giving him more influence.
Earlier this year, Fetterman said his “red line” for departure would be if the party officially adopts an “anti-Israel” platform. He also set up a joint fundraising committee with McCormick, another highly unusual move that raised eyebrows among his Senate colleagues.
Yes, that certainly is “unusual.” It might be unprecedented. On first blush, he and McCormick may be building a fundraising operation that will support Fetterman in a sure-to-come primary challenge in 2028. However, one has to wonder whether Fetterman and McCormick might create their own caucus if the Senate splits 50-50 or 51-49 in either direction after the midterms. That would create headaches for everyone, but it would at least hearken back to the original plan of the Senate under the Constitution as the body that represented states rather than parties or popular passions.
Less than four weeks later, The Atlantic reports that Fetterman has created partnerships with more Republicans than just McCormick. Fetterman had cut ties with MissionWired, described as “a Democratic-aligned digital fundraising firm,” in June just prior to forming the partnership with McCormick. Not long after that, Fetterman began expanding contacts with Senate Republicans, most notably Katie Britt of Alabama, while Democrats largely cut him off.
Now Fetterman has a new fundraising strategy that focuses on conservative donors, and new partners that know how to reach them:
A Republican fundraising consultant alerted her colleagues this month in a private message about a hot new business opportunity from an unlikely source: Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a Democrat. “I thought you would be interested in this high performing Fetterman copy,” wrote Leah Mergener, an account associate at the GOP-aligned firm Blitz Digital Group. “It has been doing crazy numbers for us.”
The fundraising appeal was signed by Fetterman and included links to donate to his campaign fund. But the language was written to attract donors sympathetic to President Trump, and the money flowed through a payment-processing firm, Anedot, that is used by Republicans. “I’m always going to reject Socialism and the anti-American way of life,” read its subject line, before warning that socialists were “hijacking the Democratic party.”
Through the opportunity that Mergener proposed, conservative groups that sent the Fetterman appeal to their lists of donors would receive most of the money raised. “We are offering it a 75% split,” Mergener wrote in the message that we obtained. A Republican consultant explained to us that this means that 75 percent of the first donation each recipient made would be kicked back as a commission to the organization that sent the appeal; Fetterman would profit largely by gaining the contact information of new donors, allowing him to build a fundraising list he could use for a future campaign.
The timing of the realignment for fundraising is notable, as are his new allies:
Days after speaking at the midterm convention, Fetterman’s political operation began working with a Republican-aligned firm to start arranging emails and text messages to acquire new conservative donors, which were first reported by The Intercept. Fetterman’s missives were circulated by more than a dozen political operations with domain names such as America1stWarRoom.com, ConstitutionPatriots.com, RedMajorities.com, TheDesantisDaily.com, and TrumpTruths.org, according to records collected by the Archive of Political Emails. The new effort deepens the mystery around his political intentions and is a cause for concern for Democratic leaders. Fetterman’s refusal to limit himself to the Democratic ecosystem could matter a great deal next year, especially if he finds himself as the decisive swing vote and holds the power to decide which party will control the Senate.
It’s not just the money that’s changed, either. It’s the message:
As recently as June, Fetterman sounded like an entirely different politician in his fundraising appeals. He told donors about needing four seats to flip the Senate. There were messages backing Rob Sand in Iowa, Jon Ossoff in Georgia, and James Talarico in Texas. There was an email warning about how “dangerous” Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s policies were, and how “the GOP is coming after Social Security.” In one appeal on June 30, he wrote: “At a time like this, it’s crucial we hit our goals and keep up the pressure on Trump and extremist Republicans.” That is the last email from Fetterman captured by the Archive of Political Emails for several months. Then, this month, messages from Fetterman shifted to warn about socialism.
In fairness, June is about the time that the socialists began successfully poaching safe Democrat seats in the midterm primaries. Until then, the issue looked less acute and more of a nagging headache. The timeline here may reflect that Fetterman didn’t change messaging because of the money, but that he realized that the party had sold out to the Marxists and he needed funding that would amplify his warnings.
Fetterman, meanwhile, continues to insist that he’s not going to flip to the GOP. According to The Atlantic, Fetterman has been spooked by Trump’s purity campaign against John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, although Trump has been very careful to leave Susan Collins alone. However, The Atlantic also quotes an anonymous Democrat operative who apparently thinks it’s only a matter of time. “Dems are bitter and resentful,” the operative told the Atlantic, “and these guys are sitting there with open arms.”
As I’ve mentioned before, though, one of my favorite poems closes with this stanza: You can tell the man who boozes/By the company he chooses/And the pig got up and slowly walked away. We can apply that to Fetterman’s new financial and messaging partners, and just as easily apply it to Chuck Schumer’s broad welcome of socialists into the supposed “big tent” that has already closed its flaps to Fetterman. The normal advice would be to follow the money, and … stay tuned until after the midterms. If the Senate splits 50/50, Fetterman will have lots of leverage. We don’t have to do a lot of math to figure that out.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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