If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is a game of chicken, it sounds as though the Iranians will either swerve first – or accelerate. One way or the other, though, the blockade appears to have succeeded in bringing the regime to its crisis point. As discussions around a potential deal (really a pre-deal) continue, the IRGC has begun to demand an end to the US Navy’s complete siege on Iranian ports.
That message has come from the top of the food chain today, including the Nepo Babytollah’s supposed attaché:
Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to Mojtaba Khamenei: If the naval blockade continues for a period beyond a certain time frame, then we will be the ones who will attack. pic.twitter.com/LUUMFqaKHr
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 29, 2026
IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi: “We will break the blockade through negotiations. If not, through direct action.” pic.twitter.com/WFfgdwhcCx
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 29, 2026
The “direct action” threat comes with a promise of “utter ruin” as a result:
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
“Experts say” a lot of things, but this is probably correct. The Iranian regime has not exhibited any restraint in its missile and drone attacks in this conflict or in others. They have aimed at practically every Gulf state, including relatively friendly countries such as Qatar and Oman, targeting their energy production infrastructure. The IRGC has sent volleys of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. At the same time, however, the US and Israel destroyed their military-industrial infrastructure on multiple levels. If the Iranians had more gas in the tank for deterrent strategies and tactics, the IRGC would have used them already.
That’s not to say that the Iranian regime can’t inflict damage. They still have drones and missiles in their inventories, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace them now. Their blue-water navy is gone, and the US is taking out their littoral navy when the IRGC sends those boats into the Strait of Hormuz to harass shipping. This threat isn’t exacty empty, but it’s entirely insufficient to deter hostilities if the IRGC won’t make a deal. To extend the “chicken” analogy,” they’re pitting a Peugeot against a Peterbilt. In that kind of matchup, it doesn’t matter whether Iran accelerates or not – they’re going to lose if they push it to a collision.
Vahidi wants to use these threats to force the US into more concessions. It’s the Tehran Two-Step, related closely to the Hamas Hokey Pokey, both of which are based on the concept of the hudna. The dance goes like this: Take one step toward your negotiating partner, and when he takes a step toward you, take two steps back and wait for him to come to you. It only works, though, when your partner wants to dance with you and thinks the dance is good enough. That has been the case with the West when it comes to the Iranian regime for the past 47 years.
Is it good enough for Donald Trump, though? That has been the question since the ceasefire, and both his critics and supporters wonder about it. Trump warned in a Truth Social statement this morning that he won’t sign a deal without verifiable compliance by Iran on both the Strait and ending nuclear weapons development. His decision will come soon, Trump declared, but he’s not going to let Iran off the hook:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The part about no money being exchanged is significant, Axios’ Barak Ravid notes:
The MOU states that Iran will agree to negotiate on its nuclear program, but does not include specific concessions. …
- U.S. officials say they have verbal commitments from the Iranians on the nuclear material, but that what matters is what is agreed when the sides get in the room for the formal negotiations.
- Trump claimed “no money will be exchanged, until further notice,” referring to Iran’s frozen funds in accounts around the world.
Even if Trump accepts this MOU, it may not end the game of chicken. The IRGC violated the current ceasefire within 48 hours by threatening traffic through the Strait, which prompted the full blockade by the US Navy that remains in place today. The Iranians are still demanding control of the Strait, which both the ceasefire and the MOU rejected. The Iranians will do what Hamas and Hezbollah have done for decades – sign the agreement, claim it meant something else, then refuse to comply when it comes time to disarm or withdraw. That’s exactly what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon at this very moment.
Maybe Trump will sign the MOU and let Iran violate the terms first as a justification for what comes next. Or perhaps he might just stick with the blockade and let the economic collapse take place over the next several weeks, either forcing the IRGC to surrender on Trump’s terms or restart the war and give him the political opening at home and in the Gulf for full-scale strikes on what remains of Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure. The blockade is clearly working to force the arrival of a decision point, and maybe Trump will be inclined to let it ride.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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