President Donald Trump just gave Republicans something they usually lack in a midterm year: a national stage they control.
The Republican Party will hold a first-ever midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9 and Sept. 10, less than two months before voters decide control of Congress on Nov. 3.
For a party defending narrow majorities, the move is bold and risky.
And smart.
Midterms typically punish the party in the White House. Gallup’s history shows the president’s party has lost an average of 25 House seats in midterm elections since 1946. From Reuters:
An off-year convention is unusual, with such events usually held only during presidential election years. Republicans are under pressure to hold on to control of Congress for Trump’s final two years in office and worry that voter unease over the economy and Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran could hurt their efforts.
“BIG NEWS! For the first time ever, the Republican Party will hold a MIDTERM CONVENTION. It will be in Dallas, Texas — One of my favorite places in the World. It will be fantastic!” Trump said in a social media post.
Trump plans to address the gathering, according to two Republican sources familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The move would further tie him to the election’s outcome at a moment when Republicans are confronting historic headwinds. The party that holds the White House in the first midterm elections after a presidential election usually loses congressional seats.
Presidents with under 50% approval have watched their parties lose an average of 37 House seats. Republicans don’t need a lecture from consultants; they need turnout, discipline, and a message strong enough to break through the usual noise.
Democrats already have the wind at their back. They led the generic congressional ballot by 7.6 points at the end of May, the second-highest May lead for either party heading into a midterm year since 2006. A separate June 30 average had Democrats ahead by 6.1 points.
By no means do those numbers guarantee a blue wave, but they do explain why Democrats would rather run the fall campaign on their terms.
DNC Chair Ken Martin has every reason to press that advantage. Democrats can count on friendly amplification from much of the political press, but they also have big problems.
Their coalition is fighting over Israel, crime, immigration, energy, gender politics, and the left’s appetite for another round of economic experiments.
Not to mention their recent aptitude towards communism.
But when Democrats talk to the country, they often sound like activists talking to each other.
Trump’s Dallas convention can turn those weaknesses into a national contrast. Republicans can put families, police officers, Border Patrol voices, small-business owners, energy workers, veterans, and parents on stage.
They can make Democrats answer for prices, schools, public safety, the border, and the cultural fights they keep pretending ordinary Americans asked for.
Dallas also puts Texas at the center of the campaign. Republican nominee Ken Paxton faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in a Senate race Democrats badly want to nationalize. From Reuters:
Trump said the event, scheduled for September 9 and 10, would bring together “hardworking Americans, our Great Innovators, Entrepreneurs, Manufacturers, First Responders, and Job Creators who are powering our Nation’s Golden Age.”
“It will be a RALLY like none other!” he said.
Republicans face a crucial test in Texas over whether they can continue to dominate politics in the state. Trump dealt a stunning blow to longtime incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn by endorsing his opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton easily defeated Cornyn in the Republican primary election.
This has set up a November battle between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Democrats see the scandal-tarred Paxton as vulnerable and are pouring money into the race in hopes of finally breaking Republicans’ grip on the state.
Trump wants to use the convention to rally his Make America Great Again faithful to vote in November, the sources said. Voter turnout in midterm elections is historically much lower than in presidential elections.
Trump backed Paxton over longtime Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), and now the party has to defend a seat Democrats believe they can make competitive. The convention gives Republicans a chance to rally Texas while speaking to every battleground state at once.
The event also changes the media math. Networks can ignore a campaign speech, but they can’t ignore a national convention led by a sitting president before a midterm election.
Trump knows and understands spectacle, but spectacle only works when it carries a clear argument. If Dallas becomes two days of grievance and applause lines, Democrats will smile. If it becomes a disciplined case for Republican control of Congress, it can reset the fall.
Republicans hold 218 House seats, while the Democrats hold 212, with one independent and four vacancies. The Senate stands at 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who align with Democrats. A small shift could hand Democrats subpoena power, committee gavels, and a two-year blockade against Trump’s agenda.
The smartest part of Trump’s plan is simple: Democrats were preparing to spend the fall defining Republicans as chaotic, extreme, and tired. Dallas gives the GOP a chance to answer before the charge hardens.
A midterm convention can’t drown out the Democratic and mainstream media’s blowhorn, but it can give Republicans a microphone large enough to challenge it.
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