Donald Trump’s presidency is unraveling. Don’t believe me? You obviously don’t read the New York Times.
“European leaders have refused to join his war with Iran,” writes the Times’ Peter Baker. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel flatly rejected his Gaza plan. Gulf Arab states forced him to abandon plans to charge a shipping toll in the Strait of Hormuz,” he adds.
Baker has more: “Universities and law firms are rebuffing his directives rather than signing on the bottom line. Bond markets are rebelling against his fiscal policies. Even the ABC network, whose $16 million payment to settle a Trump lawsuit was seen as an early example of yielding to the president, has discovered that it did not buy peace and is now suing his administration for threatening its broadcast licenses.”
Wow. Baker thinks Trump has one foot on a banana peel and the other poised over a bear trap.
Indeed, Donald Trump’s approval numbers are predictably underwater. The RealClearPolitics average is anemic at 39.5% approval. Nate Silver’s average has Trump at 38.1% approval.
Then, for the love of Mike, would these experts tell me why political novice Darline Graham, sister of the deceased Sen. Lindsey Graham, managed to win the South Carolina Senate race primary despite healthy skepticism that she could prevail?
Graham made an unforced, rookie mistake in the one debate between her and her primary opponent, Rep. Ralph Norman, last week. She admitted she didn’t know a lot about foreign policy, specifically Taiwan.
Norman must have thought the electoral gods were on his side. “By her choice, she’s running for the United States Senate. It’s a six-year term. You need to get fully versed in what issues you’re going to be dealing with. This isn’t a get training on the job, you can’t do that.”
After that gaffe, some political observers believed it would take a miracle for Graham to pull off a victory.
Enter a miracle.
Donald Trump rode to Graham’s rescue on Friday, showing up at the Myrtle Beach Convention Center and, before an enthusiastic house, gave a ringing endorsement for Darline. He defended her debate gaffe by arguing that she was simply “being honest” rather than offering a typical politician’s response.
“I’m doing this to honor Lindsey. That’s why I’m here… So, Darline, we got to win that race.” He directly appealed to attendees to treat the contest as if he were on the ballot himself.
Appearing with GOP heavyweights Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster, Trump backed up his trip by having his MAGA super PAC pour $800,000 into a massive get-out-the-vote effort. It was an over-the-top success. The turnout in Myrtle Beach was spectacular. Graham won 73% of the vote, bettering her brother’s 64% in the last primary, and won all 125 precincts. Statewide, she won 197,000 votes to Norman’s 175,000.
Must’ve been a nice day because nothing else contributed to the large turnout, right?
Trump’s approval may be underwater, but he still drives the GOP bus. And since the midterms are predicated largely on getting your supporters to the polls in greater numbers than your opponent, Trump’s ability to drive voters to the polls will be critical if the GOP hopes to maintain control of Congress.
President Donald Trump didn’t just endorse Graham – sharing a stage with her in South Carolina on Friday, he declared that he too was “on the ballot.”
A day before the primary runoff, he appeared to hedge his bets: For “a few” of the candidates he endorsed it was “almost impossible for them to win,” he posted on Truth Social, but he felt “obligated” to back them. He did not specify which candidates he was referring to, though the post came amid concerns about the viability of Graham’s campaign.
By late Tuesday, however, it was clear she had pulled it off. While Norman performed well in his home base of Greenville, Graham outperformed him in much of the rest of the state – including a resounding win in the area surrounding Myrtle Beach, where Trump campaigned with her last week.
It was a much-needed win for Trump, facing mounting public concerns over inflation, the conflict with Iran and an escalating trade war with Canada.
I think it’s clear at this point, less than two months before the election, that no one — not pollsters, not prediction markets, not “experts,” not anyone — knows what the voters will say on November 3. What pollsters are telling us about what issues are “important” isn’t tracking with the reality we’re seeing on the ground.
Trump, as usual, is the wildcard. Where he’s popular, he will help. Where he’s not as popular, he will probably hurt, but not as much as some might project. One aspect of Trump’s effect on the races that won’t be reflected in any poll or survey is that the 35% of the electorate that supports Trump are more enthusiastic than almost any Democrat, and therefore, more likely to vote. That’s what the South Carolina runoff tells us.
I’m not predicting a GOP win in the midterms. But these confident predictions of a GOP disaster aren’t based on reality. There’s a disconnect between the polls and what’s happening on the ground. And elections are won and lost on the ground.
Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats desperately try to stop it.
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