The number of teens working summer jobs will sink to a 78-year low this year, the consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates.
The Chicago company projects that inflation, rising oil prices and a “cautious hiring environment” will lead employers to hire just 790,000 teens between May and July.
That’s down 1.4% from 801,000 last summer, previously the weakest season on record and the first time since 2010 that fewer than 1 million teens found seasonal work.
The projected total would be the lowest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking teen employment in 1948.
The historic low before last year was 932,000 teens hired in the summer of 1949 during a postwar economic lull.
“Inflation and rising fuel costs are squeezing the same households and small businesses that hire teens, such as amusement parks, restaurants, retailers and summer camps,” said Andy Challenger, a labor expert at the firm.
He noted that last summer came in “quieter than expected,” setting the stage for even lower expectations this year.
Several economists not involved in the report said the numbers reflect long-term labor market shifts and more recent pressure from the Trump administration’s tariffs and the Iran war.
“Even before tariffs entered the picture, teen employment had been facing long-term pressure from automation, online retail, tighter labor scheduling, expanded summer school and extracurricular expectations, and increased competition from adults seeking part-time or flexible work,” said Scott Beaulier, a University of Wyoming economist.
“I would be cautious about attributing too much of the projected decline to tariffs alone, though they may contribute modestly by increasing uncertainty for retailers and seasonal employers,” he added.
White House spokesman Kush Desai pushed back on the report in a statement emailed to The Washington Times.
“The last few jobs reports have consistently beaten expectations, thanks to robust private-sector job growth driven by the Trump administration’s proven economic agenda,” Mr. Desai said. “Connecting President Trump’s tariff policies — which are securing job-creating investments and trade deals — to fewer teens working summer jobs is not only completely unsubstantiated, but nonsensical.”
Teen labor force participation during April fell from over 50% in the 1970s and 1980s to 29.5% this year, according to federal figures cited in the report.
Mall jobs, retail cashier positions, movie theater roles and food service tasks previously filled by teens have become automated. Streaming entertainment has gutted movie theater attendance, and higher prices have kept families away from water parks and seasonal attractions.
“The hiring rate across the nation is now nearly 10% lower than it was before the pandemic and is continuing its downward trend,” said Javier Palomarez, CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council. “When companies stop hiring, it typically signals dire concerns around business confidence, operational bandwidth, and long-term growth expectations throughout the economy.”
Abigail R. Hall, a University of Tampa economist, noted that more teens are simply opting out of traditional work altogether.
“Many teens today who do want to work may turn to trying to generate income online through social media or through employment that isn’t captured by official figures,” Ms. Hall said. “For example, a good 18-year-old babysitter may easily fill up their calendar with work, but since these jobs are most often paid via cash, these arrangements won’t show up in the official employment numbers.”
Running leaner
The Challenger report based its estimates on government figures showing 5.2 million workers ages 16 to 19 held jobs in April — down from 5.5 million in the same month last year and one of the weakest April readings since 2021.
Hiring plans for entertainment and leisure, the industries most relevant to teen employment, fell 70% from this point last year, dropping from 28,000 announced plans through April last year to just 8,261 this year.
“Theme parks, resorts, hotels and event operators are signaling they’ll run leaner this year,” Mr. Challenger said. “That is exactly the kind of work teens depend on.”
Workforce experts hold out little hope that the nation’s teen hiring numbers will ever return to previous summer norms.
“Many employers are using scheduling software, kiosks, automation and older part-time workers to cover work that used to go to teenagers,” said Kaveh Vahdat, founder of AI marketing company RiseOpp.
’Pockets of demand’
Some opportunities remain. The report identified lingering “pockets of demand” for teens in agriculture, hospitality and food service within regions with smaller labor pools, praising such jobs for building independence and skills.
It also noted that many teens shun traditional work due to academic pressure, extracurriculars and “alternative income” from online content and gig work.
“Most teens are leaning toward freelance work, paid internships or even entrepreneurial activity,” said Joel Marotti, senior managing partner at Vertical Media Solutions, a Michigan-based career coaching firm. “And the ones that find ways to build real professional skills in these nontraditional paths are gonna be the ones that really excel once they’re in the marketplace.”
Christina Martin, a Wilmington, Delaware-based resume coach, said she encourages adolescent side hustles such as designing YouTube channels, Etsy shops and social media pages for local businesses.
“Digital skills are the new summer job, and the work product is visible and shareable,” Ms. Martin said. “Students who create their own experience are the ones who’ll have something to show for it on their resume, in their college essays and in their first real interview.”
