With pivotal midterm elections coming up in November that could change the balance of power in the Senate, speculation is mounting that one or two Supreme Court justices may retire, giving President Donald Trump the chance to secure a conservative majority on the court for decades to come.
So naturally, conservatives got some frustrating news this week.
Despite the swirling speculation — which Trump himself fueled in part — neither Justice Samuel Alito nor Justice Clarence Thomas is reportedly planning to retire in 2026. Sources close to both justices confirmed to CBS News that neither man is stepping down this year, effectively slamming the door on a potential Trump Supreme Court nomination in the near term.
The irony is that Trump seemed genuinely ready to move. In an interview with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo earlier this week, he said he is “prepared” to name as many as two or three new justices if vacancies open up.
“In theory, it’s two — you just read the statistics — it could be two, could be three, could be one,” Trump said. “I don’t know. I’m prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice. He does what’s right for the country. It’s the law, and he goes by it as much as anybody, but he gets to the point.”
And therein lies the conflict for conservatives. Alito, 76, has served since 2006. Thomas, 77, has been on the court since 1991. Both are pillars of the court’s 6-3 conservative majority — brilliant legal minds who have spent decades building a legacy that conservatives rightly cherish. Nobody wants to see them go. The problem is that nobody wants to lose their seats to a radical leftist, either.
The math is uncomfortable. If Democrats retake the Senate majority in November, any Supreme Court vacancy becomes a political hostage situation. Think about it. If Mitch McConnell was willing to block Obama from filling Scalia’s seat, then Chuck Schumer would block Trump from filling any vacancies for the final two years of his presidency. And if Democrats reclaim the White House in 2028? That 6-3 conservative majority could flip to a 5-4 liberal majority — a nightmare scenario that should keep you up at night.
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Conservatives have seen this movie before, just from the other side. Ruth Bader Ginsburg famously refused to retire during the Obama years, reportedly even declining a personal appeal from Obama himself to step aside while he still had the Senate to confirm a replacement.
She stubbornly held on, then died in office in 2020, and handed Trump his third Supreme Court pick. You’ve probably noticed that Democrats are sore about that. For them, the lesson was painful and costly — and conservatives would do well not to repeat it with their own judicial icons.
For what it’s worth, the court still has major decisions expected by late June or early July on birthright citizenship, and there’s arguably still time for the situation to change. Alito and Thomas may not want to broadcast their intentions this early. It’s not that any conservative wants to see either of them gone, but sometimes, you have to play the long game. The fact is, with Trump in the White House and a majority in the Senate, this may be the moment to secure a 6-3 conservative majority for decades.
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