Ken Paxton just pulled off a Trump-endorsed victory in Texas. But the real story is what comes next.
The firebrand attorney general, backed by a last-minute nod from the president, crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn by more than 27 points in Tuesday’s Republican runoff. Now Paxton heads into the November general election against Democrat James Talarico in a race that could reshape the Senate map and test whether Trump’s endorsement machine has its limits.
I’m Susan Ferrechio, senior politics reporter for The Washington Times. And here’s what this win could mean for Texas, the Republican Party, and the 2026 midterm battlefield.
How decisive was Paxton’s win?
How decisive was Paxton’s win and what does the margin tell us about Trump’s power within the GOP right now?
Cornyn’s defeat marks Trump’s latest knockout punch aimed at Republicans that he believes have shown disloyalty or worked against his agenda. On May 16, two-term Republican Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to remove Trump from office following the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol, lost his GOP primary to Representative Julia Letlow. She was recruited and endorsed by President Trump.
Trump also took down GOP Representative Thomas Massie in his deep red Kentucky congressional district after endorsing his primary opponent, Ed Gallrein. Massie voted against the president’s signature tax cuts, spoke out against the Iran war, and helped force a congressional vote to release the Epstein files.
How does a senator who was considered a “Trump ally” lose so badly?
John Cornyn voted with Trump more than 99% of the time and was considered an ally of the president. So how does a senator with that record lose so badly?
Cornyn and his allies spent a record amount of money battling Paxton, more than $90 million. But the combination of Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton and a smaller election turnout in the runoff, made up of hardcore conservatives, helped Paxton overcome his big campaign cash deficit.
Despite being allies with the president, Cornyn has sins against the president that date back a decade when he first opposed then-candidate Trump’s campaign pledge to finish building the wall along the southern border. Mr. Cornyn also spoke out against Trump’s decision to run for president again in 2024, although he later wholeheartedly endorsed his candidacy.
Cornyn has shown far more loyalty to the president than Massie or Cassidy, and touted his record of almost always voting in favor of the Trump agenda. But Trump, in his endorsement of Paxton, said Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough” and was “very late in backing me in what turned out to be an historic run for the Republican nomination and then the presidency itself, both of which were landslide victories.”
Who is James Talarico and why are Democrats so excited about him as a candidate?
The party is hoping Talarico can energize Democrats with populist economic proposals addressing the high cost of living. He has, for example, sided with Trump in calling for the suspension of the federal gas tax. Talarico’s personal and campaign accounts on social media have amassed more than 2.5 million followers. He appears in recent posts grabbing tacos and shaking hands with voters alongside former President Barack Obama.
Talarico has pivoted away from his party’s embrace of identity politics, and he has pivoted toward taxing the ultra-wealthy, banning congressional stock trading, and term limits for congressional lawmakers. Recent polls show Paxton and Talarico in a dead heat.
What does a competitive Texas Senate race mean for the broader 2026 map?
It’s too soon for the polls to accurately show whether Talarico can beat Paxton in Texas. If Talarico starts pulling ahead of Paxton in the months ahead, this will be a clear sign that Republicans may be in trouble across the map thanks to voter frustration over high gas prices and inflation and issues related to the cost of living.
Paxton’s win is the latest in a string of Trump-backed primary victories. It sends a message to Republican incumbents facing strong MAGA challengers that they too are vulnerable.
What are Paxton and Talarico’s biggest vulnerabilities?
What’s the biggest vulnerability Paxton and Tallarico carry into the general election?
For Talarico, it’s his past statements embracing liberal philosophies such as multiple genders, illegal immigration and reduced meat consumption. He’s also expressed support for abortion.
Paxton will continue to face his rival’s campaign ads highlighting his own personal and professional scandals, including a messy divorce, an impeachment on corruption charges and allegations of mistresses.
As soon as Paxton won the runoff on Tuesday, Talarico posted a 2015 mugshot of Paxton after he was charged with three felony counts of securities fraud, for which he was not convicted. Trump hit back with a Truth Social post attacking Talarico as weak on crime and an open borders “Dumocrat.”
Is Texas actually in play in November?
Bottom line, is Texas actually in play in November or is this wishful thinking by Democrats?
Paxton’s vulnerabilities may put the Texas Senate seat in play, which will force the Republican Party to divert millions of dollars to defending a seat that should have been reliably red.
For now, we can expect one of the most expensive and ugliest Senate seat battles of the midterm elections.
