There is a story more explosive even than Graham Platner’s political implosion, believe it or not.
Iran is back to striking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Three have been hit by Iranian missiles or drones in the past 24 hours. One was struck yesterday, and two more have been struck in the past few hours.
🔥🚨 BREAKING — Two tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz right as President Trump arrived in Turkey — no casualties reported so far.
New audio emerges of Iran threatening ships in the vital waterway.
IRAN: “This is the last WARNING, this is the last warning, this is… pic.twitter.com/M0D9TGxkFy
— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) July 7, 2026
Iran obviously has no intention of yielding control of the Strait of Hormuz, although so far it appears to be pulling its punches a bit. It seems implausible to me that a series of strikes on ships transiting the Gulf would result in no casualties if the Iranians want to cause damage serious enough to sink them. It would be interesting to know whether the drones or missiles used are carrying explosives, or just use kinetic effects to cause serious but not fatal damage.
If confirmed, this is no longer just “noise.”
Qatar publicly blaming Iran changes the tone.
A tanker attack near Hormuz is one thing. A regional state formally holding Iran legally responsible is another.
Still, for oil prices, the key remains unchanged:
Does this disrupt… https://t.co/zIvl8xBjbP
— Strategic Atlas (@dragon_x1102) July 7, 2026
If confirmed, this is no longer just “noise.”
Qatar publicly blaming Iran changes the tone.
A tanker attack near Hormuz is one thing. A regional state formally holding Iran legally responsible is another.
Still, for oil prices, the key remains unchanged:
Does this disrupt physical flows, insurance, or shipping behavior at scale?
If barrels keep moving, the market may stay calm.
If Qatar, LNG routes, or Gulf exports are affected, risk premium returns fast.
On the other hand, it is notable that one of the ships hit was carrying Liquefied Natural Gas, which could have exploded, suggesting that my speculation may be incorrect. It may just be that Iran is trying to avoid an oil spill, which would devastate its own shores, while an LNG carrier would create a spectacular fireball but much more limited environmental damage.
Iran has attacked three vessels in the last 24 hours in Hormuz, one of which is a Qatari LNG carrier (!). It is much more dangerous than attacking a plain crude oil carrier, out of the simple fact that LNG is flammable, crude oil is well… crude.
This is the key first quote by… pic.twitter.com/m5w6rRBAiu
— Ami Daniel (@AmiDaniel1) July 7, 2026
Iran has attacked three vessels in the last 24 hours in Hormuz, one of which is a Qatari LNG carrier (!). It is much more dangerous than attacking a plain crude oil carrier, out of the simple fact that LNG is flammable, crude oil is well… crude.
This is the key first quote by the Qatari government: “We hold it fully legally responsible for this attack & for any resulting damages & consequences”.
The key rationale behind this coordinated attack is that Iran is trying to shutdown the US-Omani Southern Corridor and attain control over the Straits. In other words: Iran wants to make it too dangerous for ships to transit far from its shores — where its easier for them to control and to attack. Oman is 20+ miles from Irani coastlines – almost too far for radars and binoculars from Iranian coastline (especially at night, and this is the US Navy -NCAGS recommended route). So this is a really well planned path to push ships to sail close to Iran and later on pay them for passage.
Specifically, according to @WindwardAI data, six vessels rerouted from the southern corridor to the central corridor: Tara Gas, Aurelian, Nexor, Lotus Leader, Avang, Capetown Highway and one additional LNG tanker (Al Areesh) halted its transit and anchored halfway to the Strait.
These attacks are aimed at closing down the American-created and defended southern route in Omani waters, simultaneously putting pressure on all transits not approved by Iran and displaying what they will portray as US weakness in the face of Iranian strength.
Iran’s attacks come one day after Trump issued dire threats to Iran, telling them they have to get serious about negotiations lest he “finish the job” and dismantle Iran’s economy. Obviously they don’t believe him.
BREAKING: President Trump issues a stark warning to Iran, declaring the U.S. is prepared to completely dismantle the country’s infrastructure “in a small part of an afternoon” if a diplomatic deal cannot be reached.
“We’re going to win one way or the other. We’re going to make a… pic.twitter.com/wFDBbvutlr
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 6, 2026
BREAKING: President Trump issues a stark warning to Iran, declaring the U.S. is prepared to completely dismantle the country’s infrastructure “in a small part of an afternoon” if a diplomatic deal cannot be reached.
“We’re going to win one way or the other. We’re going to make a deal or we’re going to finish the job, okay. And it won’t be tough to finish the job.”
“I’d rather make a deal, because I don’t want to affect 91 million people. We can knock down their bridges in one hour. We can knock out their energy supply.”
“We can knock out their electricity and power generating plants. And I would say in a small part of an afternoon, every plant will be gone. And they know that.”
It’s difficult to see how President Trump can ignore these attacks and portray them as nothing but negotiation tactics and not respond with serious force. After several previous violations of the ceasefire, Trump bombed Iranian positions that are tied to the attacks, but those attacks were well short of doing enough damage to the Iranians to deter them from future attacks or to degrade Iranian capabilities enough to destroy their ability to punish ships that defy their warnings.
Yet…Trump is clearly trying to avoid further disruptions to the flow of oil and petroleum products, rightly worried that an already tight oil market would drive prices into the stratosphere. Oil prices are at near pre-war levels, which has relieved both domestic and foreign political pressures.
Iran knows this and thinks they have the leverage. Leverage enough to commit yet another violation of the MOA and demand what amounts to tolls beginning today.
🚨 BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY JUST STATED:
“ALL SHIPS TRANSITING THE HORMUZ SHOULD PAY A MANDATORY SERVICE FEE RATHER THAN A TOLL.”
US-IRAN INSIDERS REPORT THAT THE CEASEFIRE MAY BREAK AT ANY TIME
THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS… pic.twitter.com/mz3cZlxGuI
— ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) July 7, 2026
Iran is banking on Democrats in the United States to aid them by crippling Donald Trump here at home, and they may be right. While some European countries are expressing reluctant support for the US’s efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Democrats are doubling down on their opposition to Trump and his efforts to keep Iran in check.
Donald Trump is demanding that Congress give his war machine another $350 billion.
The reckless war of choice in Iran has increased gas prices and been a disaster for the American people.
Get lost.
— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) July 7, 2026
That seems like a good bet, to be honest. Even after Iran began striking ships again in the Strait, Hakeem Jeffries gave the finger to Trump, insisting that the Democrats won’t support Trump under any circumstances.
Trump’s bet that he could keep Iran in check at least through the midterms was always a long shot. The Iranians know that every time they get away with violating the MOU, they look stronger and Trump looks weaker both to the world and to Democrats who have been baying for his blood for over a decade. They smell victory in November, despite their manifold troubles, and will be going in for the kill.
Trump, in my judgment, needs to respond with more than a pinpoint strike. Let’s see if he does.
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