An Axios blurb reflects the thinking of Democrats regarding the Republican midterm strategy of embracing Donald Trump rather than running away from him.
“Two months before Election Day, Democrats can taste the House majority, provided two conditions hold: President Trump remains unpopular, and vulnerable Republicans stay close to him,” writes Hans Nichols.
It’s true. Historically, in midterm elections, the party out of power gains an average of 35 to 37 seats in the House of Representatives and roughly 3 to 5 seats in the U.S. Senate when the sitting president’s approval rating is below 50%.
In 2010, Barack Obama, with a 45% approval rating, saw the Democrats lose 63 seats. In 2018, Donald Trump, with a 41% approval rating, lost 40 seats. And in 1994, with Bill Clinton’s approval rating at 48%, Democrats lost 54 seats.
The Senate is a different story, with different dynamics at play, but the sitting president’s party loses an average of 3.5 to four Senate seats overall. When the president’s approval is low, losses often range from four to eight seats.
It would seem almost suicidal for Republicans to latch on to Trump and ride out the midterms on his coattails. Ordinarily, that would be true. But this is not an ordinary midterm election, and Democrats, in my opinion, appear to be the ones committing suicide.
While most candidates would generally run away from an unpopular president, Trump may be some candidates’ only hope. Not only are Trump’s coattails fairly long, but the Republicans also have about $1 billion in cash burning holes in Trump’s, Elon Musk’s, and the RNC’s pockets. Midterm elections have never seen anything like it. And while money isn’t everything, there isn’t a candidate running on either side who believes that having less money than your opponent is an advantage.
Trump is going to give more money to GOP candidates who embrace him than to candidates who don’t. That simple calculus will give candidates little choice in backing the president.
Besides, Democrats shouldn’t be smiling so broadly. The ad campaign that Trump and Musk unleashed is going to make the Democrats squirm, and the voter hesitate before marking their ballot for a Democrat.
The Republicans are gathering at the American Airlines Center in Dallas for a gigantic, two-day election commercial they’re calling a “Midterm Convention.” Trump will speak on both nights and highlight the radical left lurch of the Democrats and paint the contest as a battle between democracy and communism.
“This is not a midterm like any other, because we actually have a competition against communism now, and that’s a very serious thing. It’s going to animate voters coast to coast,” House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized in a Fox News Digital campaign trail interview last month.
Democrats, as they try to win back congressional majorities, were already battling a brand that public opinion polling indicates is extremely unpopular. Making matters worse, the high-profile victories this spring and summer by left-wing and socialist candidates over establishment rivals in Democratic primaries, which gave Republicans extra ammunition to portray all Democrats as extremists.
“What we’re going to highlight at that convention is the fact that this is not your father’s Democrat Party,” Johnson said. “It’s a contrast election, and people are making a contrast between common-sense solutions and candidates, and really crazy, which is represented by the other side.”
Communism is bad, and for older voters, the “Red Scare” tactics will be most effective.
Voters aged 45-64 account for the largest absolute volume of ballots cast, usually making up around 35% to 40% of all midterm voters.
Voters aged 65-plus make up the second-largest portion of total voters (around 30% of total voters). They consistently register the highest participation rate of any demographic, with roughly 65% to 70%+ of eligible seniors turning out during midterm elections.
At least three-quarters of midterm voters grew up in at least some part of the Cold War. That’s got to count for something at the ballot box.
Meanwhile, are you ready for “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” Part II? Elon Musk’s America PAC is unloading $120 million for a massive, never-before-seen get-out-the-vote effort, and a key part of it will be ads painting the Democrats as goofy and nuts on trans issues.
America PAC isn’t running a traditional persuasion campaign. It’s undertaking a massive get-out-the-vote operation, with targeted ads designed to get GOP voters to the polls.
The PAC is betting trans issues will do just that.
Driving the news: In a series of just-launched ads, America PAC goes after Democratic Senate candidates in four competitive races over transgender athletes, gender-transition care and other trans issues.
The PAC’s emphasis on trans issues is striking because that’s been a much less prominent theme in GOP Senate ads so far this election cycle, per AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
The ads, which are running online and on streaming platforms, attack Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Iowa’s Josh Turek, Texas’ James Talarico and Alaska’s Mary Peltola.
They’re among the first batch of ads from America PAC, which Musk has reportedly authorized to spend upwards of $100 million in the midterms.
It worked in 2024. Why not now?
The Democrats’ toxicity is the wild card in this election. Everyone agrees they’re nuts, but are they so stinky that people won’t even hold their noses and vote for them?
Republican midterm fortunes hang on the answer to that question.
Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats desperately try to stop it.
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