Texas Republicans head to the polls Tuesday in a closely watched three-way Senate primary that could reshape the state’s political landscape and determine whether Democrats see an opening in a state they have not won statewide since 1994.
Four-term Sen. John Cornyn, 74, faces challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, 44, a West Point graduate and Army combat veteran serving his second term in Congress. All three have aligned themselves with President Trump’s agenda.
During a visit to Corpus Christi on Friday, Mr. Trump praised each candidate but stopped short of endorsing anyone. “We have a great attorney general, Ken Paxton … and we have a great senator, John Cornyn,” Mr. Trump said, later describing Mr. Hunt as “another friend of mine who’s doing very well.” The president told reporters he has “pretty much” decided whom to endorse but declined to say who.
Polling indicates no candidate is likely to surpass the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. The Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Mr. Paxton at 38.9%, Mr. Cornyn at 35.4% and Mr. Hunt at 16.5%. Under Texas law, if no candidate wins a majority, the top two finishers advance to a May 26 runoff.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey found Mr. Paxton leading Mr. Cornyn 51% to 40% in a hypothetical runoff matchup.
Mr. Paxton has faced significant legal and political controversies during his tenure as attorney general. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but acquitted by the state Senate. In a separate matter, a Travis County judge awarded $6.6 million in a whistleblower judgment against his office related to the firing of aides who reported him to the FBI. Mr. Paxton was also indicted in 2015 on three felony securities fraud charges; the case was later resolved through a pretrial intervention agreement, and the charges were dismissed after he completed its terms, according to court records and reporting by The Associated Press.
Mr. Cornyn has warned that nominating Mr. Paxton would endanger Republicans in November, calling him an “albatross.”
Mr. Hunt has cast himself as a less polarizing conservative alternative but trails in most public polling.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Democrats may be better positioned than in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.5 percentage points, adding that Mr. Paxton would be “a notably weaker candidate than Cruz.”
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