Sen. John Cornyn is trying to convince Texas Republicans that Attorney General Ken Paxton is too big a gamble for the GOP in November, but he’s making that case without the 800-pound gorilla who could settle the argument instantly: President Donald Trump.
Republicans in Washington have urged Mr. Trump to back the longtime Texas senator, but the GOP kingmaker has kept his distance. His reluctance has become a quiet force in the race, blunting Mr. Cornyn’s warnings and giving Mr. Paxton room to maneuver.
Mr. Trump reportedly backed off an endorsement after pushback from the MAGA base, which many see as more naturally aligned with Mr. Paxton’s smash-mouth style. That hesitation has become a talking point for Mr. Paxton’s supporters, including former Trump White House aide Stephen K. Bannon, who told The Washington Times that Mr. Cornyn’s failure to secure Mr. Trump’s backing leaves him “dead in the water.”
Cornyn adviser Matt Mackowiak pushed back, saying nothing matters until Mr. Trump makes an official call. “Everything else is theoretical conjecture,” he said. Mr. Cornyn, he added, believes a Trump endorsement “ends the race,” but the campaign can’t build its strategy around a decision that hasn’t been made.
Meanwhile, Rep. Brandon Gill of Texas, who has pushed to put Mr. Trump’s picture on the $100 bill, endorsed Mr. Paxton on Thursday.
The freshman lawmaker said Mr. Cornyn should have been bolder on immigration, while Mr. Paxton “is a battle-tested, hardened conservative who weathered a politicized impeachment trial and came out stronger than ever.”
“What the Senate needs is a conservative warrior, somebody who won’t just stand with President Trump, but someone who will fight alongside him every step of the way, and do it when it matters,” he said in an op-ed on Breitbart News.
Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said the momentum is clear. “The runoff historically favors the more conservative candidate, which spells disaster for someone like Cornyn,” he said, arguing that Mr. Cornyn’s weak standing with conservatives would depress turnout.
Mr. Cornyn edged out Mr. Paxton in the primary, 41.9% to 40.7%, but fell short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff, setting up a two‑man race heading into the May 26 finish. The winner will face state Rep. James Talarico, who is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in decades.
Mr. Mackowiak said Mr. Paxton’s primary showing revealed a candidate who stumbled.
“Paxton predicted winning without a runoff,” he said. “He blew a double‑digit lead. He hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching yet.”
Former Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert, who once ran against Mr. Paxton for attorney general, offered his own blunt assessment.
He said he often clashed with Mr. Cornyn during his 18 years in Congress, but also credited Mr. Paxton with advancing conservative causes. He then added that “as his wife now knows, he lied a lot,” referring to the Paxtons’ messy divorce.
Mr. Gohmert called Mr. Paxton “the most corrupt attorney general we have had in my lifetime.”
Mr. Cornyn’s team has hammered that point, arguing Mr. Paxton is too radioactive and that his personal and professional troubles would endanger not just the Senate seat but Republicans up and down the ballot. They’ve highlighted allegations of infidelity and corruption that have dogged Mr. Paxton, who is divorcing his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, and was impeached in 2023 by the GOP‑controlled Texas House before being acquitted by the state Senate.
Mr. Cornyn has also tried to curry favor with the president by reversing his support for the filibuster, saying he is willing to buck tradition to pass Mr. Trump’s top legislative priority, the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and a photo ID to cast a ballot.
Mr. Paxton also upped the ante, saying he would drop out of the race if the Senate passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, also known as the SAVE America Act.
Mr. Mackowiak said the stakes couldn’t be higher, pointing to five new congressional seats, competitive legislative races, and a full slate of statewide offices on the line in November.
Compounding Mr. Cornyn’s challenge, many Republicans believe they can beat Mr. Talarico regardless of who wins the runoff.
Mr. Trump reinforced that view in a March 22 Truth Social post, dismissing Mr. Talarico as an exceptionally weak candidate. “Any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death, or even a child, would win,” he wrote.
Mr. Paxton’s political strength was on display at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, where he worked the crowd and dominated the straw poll, 67% to 21% over Mr. Cornyn.
Mr. Cornyn was invited but didn’t attend — a fact Mr. Paxton highlighted from the stage. “I cannot find this guy,” he told the crowd. “Has anybody seen John Cornyn here?”
Mr. Paxton also recently visited Mr. Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago, where he spoke, according to insiders, with the president alongside Florida state Rep. Meg Weinberger, who sponsored the bill — signed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — to rename the Palm Beach airport after Mr. Trump.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Mr. Trump’s silence is itself a message.
By staying neutral, he said, the president is signaling he doesn’t view Mr. Paxton as the liability Mr. Cornyn claims — and believes Mr. Paxton can win in November.
For now, Mr. Jones said, the race is frozen in place — and that favors Mr. Paxton.
“Absent Cornyn generating some momentum, Paxton is likely to win,” he said. “If the status quo continues between now and May 26, Paxton is likely to be the nominee.”
