As states rush to redraw their congressional maps, President Trump moved Thursday to get his team involved, saying he’s ordered the government to conduct a new count of the country’s residents — but this time without illegal immigrants. Here’s what you need to know about the Trump census order:
The Trump directive
President orders Commerce Department to conduct new count:
- Trump announced on social media he “instructed” Commerce Department to start work
- Department oversees Census Bureau
- Ordered “immediately” start work on “new and highly accurate” count
- “People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT be COUNTED IN THE CENSUS”
The potential impact
New count could shift congressional seats between states:
- Could shift several seats from states with high illegal immigrant populations
- Would also spark “hefty constitutional questions”
- Slimmed-down census without illegal immigrants long-term conservative goal
- Based on both principle and politics arguments
The conservative rationale
Republicans argue illegal immigrants shouldn’t determine representation:
- Say illegal immigrants aren’t part of broader body politic that should be counted
- Fear Democrat-led states and localities get more congressional seats
- Also affects state legislature representation when illegal immigrants counted
- Argue counting creates unfair political advantage
The constitutional questions
Constitution calls for counting “whole number of free persons”:
- Document excepted Indians “not taxed” and included three-fifths compromise for slavery
- Also called for count “within every subsequent term of ten years”
- Left it to Congress to legislate on how counting done
- Whether Trump’s vision fits constitutional framework likely to be tested in courts
The seat shift projections
Study shows potential changes from excluding illegal immigrants:
- Two demographers John Robert Warren and Robert Warren published study this year
- If illegal immigrants hadn’t been included in 2020 count, would have shifted two seats
- Seats would have gone from Texas and California to New York and Ohio
- 2010 census would have seen larger shifts
The historical impact
Decade earlier would have seen more dramatic changes:
- After 2010 census, California would have lost three seats
- Texas and Florida would have lost one apiece
- Gains would have gone to Montana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina
- Electoral College affected but not enough to change election results
The legislative support
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announces supporting legislation:
- Georgia Republican announced legislation to exclude illegal immigrants from census
- Trump touring Florida’s Gator Gitmo detention facility backed idea with Gov. DeSantis
- “Ron would love it. I would love it” said Trump
- DeSantis skeptical that little would change politically
DeSantis’s political calculation
Florida governor sees potential for significant seat gains:
- “We only got one seat in the last Census”
- “Florida only had one seat in that? We should have had at least two”
- “Texas should have had another one”
- “That could be the difference in the House of Representatives, and the majority”
The first-term precedent
Trump previously tried to adjust census during initial presidency:
- Sought to add citizenship question to 2020 count
- Supreme Court stepped in and shut him down before final deadline
- Chief Justice John Roberts said Trump likely had legal authority
- But didn’t follow correct rulemaking process for adding new question
The 2020 legal battle
Previous attempt to exclude illegal immigrants from count:
- Trump tried to order Commerce Department to provide states count without illegal immigrants
- Drew immediate legal challenge from opponents
- Three-judge panel ruled Trump’s order illegal
- Supreme Court held matter was premature and vacated lower court ruling
The Biden reversal
Current president set stage for Trump’s new attempt:
- President Biden rescinded Trump policy on taking office
- Action set Trump up for his “do-over now”
- New count will be “based on modern day facts and figures”
- Will use “results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024”
The redistricting context
Census order comes amid broader map-drawing battles:
- GOP-led Texas trying to redraw lines now to undo minority voter districts
- Started “dominoes toppling” with Democrat-led states retaliating
- Apportionment divides House’s 435 seats among states
- States then redistrict by drawing congressional district lines
Read more:
• Trump orders new census count to exclude those in U.S. illegally
This article is written with the assistance of generative artificial intelligence based solely on Washington Times original reporting and wire services. For more information, please read our AI policy or contact Ann Wog, Managing Editor for Digital, at awog@washingtontimes.com
The Washington Times AI Ethics Newsroom Committee can be reached at aispotlight@washingtontimes.com.
