For better or worse, Elon Musk isn’t a guy who likes to hew to common wisdom.
As much as I don’t necessarily think that fealty to the Republican Party is always the best option for conservatives, I’d have to put Musk’s third-party gambit in the “worse” category. Thanks to the Big Beautiful Bill being more spendy than Elon would like, he seems to have permanently broken from Trump — and, while one does get his logic that a bill may be big or beautiful but not both, an omnibus that accomplishes many of President Donald Trump’s aims through the reconciliation process is necessarily going to be messy, and opposing with no reasonable alternative seems to be an odd hill to die on.
Musk seems prepared to die on it, still rattling sabers about starting the so-called “America Party” any day now:
By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!
When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.
Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. https://t.co/9K8AD04QQN
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 5, 2025
This may indeed be just a feint, as Elon threatened to report a fake party filing to the Federal Election Commission:
This filing is false and has been reported as such to the FEC
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2025
Whatever the case, President Trump has thoughts — and pretty good ones, I’d say — on this development, such as it is.
Would you support Elon Musk’s proposed third party?
Speaking to reporters in New Jersey on Sunday, one day after Musk’s post announcing the intention to start a party and two days after the Big Beautiful Bill was signed in Washington, Trump called the idea “ridiculous.”
President Trump reacts to Elon Musk’s third party:
“I think it’s ridiculous to start a third party… Starting a third party just adds to confusion… He can have fun with it but I think it’s ridiculous.” pic.twitter.com/OUbuDeVpp6
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) July 6, 2025
“I think it’s ridiculous to start a third party. We have a tremendous success with the Republican Party,” he said. “The Democrats have lost their way, but it’s always been a two-party system.”
“And I think starting a third party just adds to confusion,” he added. “It really seems to have been developed for two parties. Third parties have never worked. So he can have fun with it but I think it’s ridiculous.”
It’s worth noting that Trump should know this better than most, having floated an idea to run under Ross Perot’s Reform Party for the presidency in 2000. He declined, the party splintered over the controversy that Pat Buchanan’s nomination caused, and Ralph Nader’s Green Party candidacy ended up being more impactful that year.
This is kind of the way of third parties, though — as Trump noted in a later Truth Social post, which was less restrained than his remarks to reporters.
“I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails,’ essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks. He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States – The System seems not designed for them,” he wrote.
“The one thing Third Parties are good for is the creation of Complete and Total DISRUPTION & CHAOS, and we have enough of that with the Radical Left Democrats, who have lost their confidence and their minds!”
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 07.06.25 06:20 PM EST
I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely “off the rails,” essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks. He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the…
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) July 6, 2025
We don’t need to go through an electoral history of third parties to know that they generally don’t accomplish much — less than independents, anyway, even in presidential elections. Perot’s best showing was before he founded the Reform Party, George Wallace’s segregation-tastic third-party challenges in the 1960s and 1970s that did little but deprive his Democrats of a few Southern electoral votes. GOP Rep. John Anderson’s 1980 third-party run as a RINO for people uncomfortable with Ronald Reagan — although initially promising — ended with just under 7 percent of the vote once conservatives became acclimated with the Gipper.
As for a successful and active third party not based around a single personality, you really have to go back to the Populist Party of the late-19th century. The Green and Libertarian Party candidates of today, meanwhile, do little except accumulate blame from whatever major party loses a close race. Whether or not that blame is currently well-placed, what’s clear is that Musk’s America Party, if it does indeed get off the ground, will likely win few seats but help elect Democrats.
In 2024, several California seats were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes:
CA13
🟥 Duarte: 105,367
🟦 Gray: 105,554 (+187)CA45
🟥 Steel: 157,611
🟦 Tran: 158,264 (+653)By spending a few million to get voter ID on the ballot in 2026, you can help achieve a stronger majority.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) July 7, 2025
But don’t just ask me. Ask Grok, X’s AI client, which Trump organizer Scott Presler did:
I asked Grok if creating a third party would elect democrats
& it agreed.
CC: America Party pic.twitter.com/3Xm4Qg6BQK
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) July 5, 2025
This is the paradox that Musk faces. OK, say you believe that a bill can be big or beautiful but not both, as Musk proclaims to, and that change can be forced through the reconciliation process, as assumedly Musk believes it can be. All this party would do, until it elects a significant number of people to office, will hand the reins to the Democrats — who think the Big Beautiful Bill isn’t beautiful because it isn’t big enough.
Is this what Musk wants to sign up for? If not, then Trump is right: Time to cut it out with the “ridiculous” third-party pseudo-solutions.
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