I would not like to play poker with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. First of all, I’m a terrible poker player, and have lost to 10-year-olds in the past. Beyond that, Netanyahu has a special sense of when to go “all in” and when to hold ’em.
He has nearly destroyed Hezbollah and Hamas, the two terrorist groups that held a knife at Israel’s throat for decades. He has, in tandem with the U.S., degraded the ability of the Houthi rebels in Yemen to attack shipping in the vital Red Sea artery.
Each move, lesser statesmen warned Netanyahu that he “risked a wider war.” That’s true, but his risks paid off. He’s been right far more often than not over the last two years.
Now, Benjamin Netanyahu is taking the biggest, boldest, most spectacular gamble of his career. If it fails, it will strengthen Iran, give heart to the enemies of Israel around the world, and probably cost him his job.
If he succeeds, it will be a world-changing event, remake the Middle East, and put Israel in the strongest position it’s ever been in.
In a video address hours after Israel’s first strike that destroyed several key nuclear sites and decapitated the Iranian leadership caste, Netanyahu outlined his real reason for attacking Iran at this time.
“The Islamic regime, which has oppressed you for almost 50 years, threatens to destroy our country, the State of Israel,” Netanyahu said. “As we achieve our objective, we are also clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom,” he added.
“The regime does not know what hit them, or what will hit them. It has never been weaker. This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard,” Netanyahu said.
Yes, it’s extremely rare for a leader to make a public, explicit call for regime change. Netanyahu has done it before, but never while Israel was in the process of dismantling Iran’s defenses and assassinating its military and security leadership. This is what Netanyahu meant by “clearing a path for you to achieve your freedom.”
The opportunity doesn’t get much better for the Iranian secularists to take to the streets. But the non-Islamic fanatics still represent a minority of the country. And even the democrats, who have put their lives on the line by demonstrating for more freedom, realize that opposing the regime now would place the protesters on the side of Israel in the eyes of most citizens.
The regime would make sure that point is made clear.
“The regime is weak and divided. It could fall,” the former Shah of Iran’s son, Reza Pahlavi, wrote on social media. “As I have told my compatriots: Iran is yours and yours to reclaim. I am with you. Stay strong and we will win.”
Neither is the son of the hated Shah of Iran a convincing messenger for change in Iran. No one wants to go back to the oppressive days of the 1970s.
But that doesn’t mean that the regime is not in danger.
Military analysts generally agree that Israel would need U.S. help to take out all of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, much of which is buried deep underground. But if Israel pursues more assassinations, including of Iranian political leaders, a regime collapse isn’t out of the question.
Iran has already begun retaliating against Israel with drones and missiles. Israelis need to determine how long they’re willing to endure such bombardments — if Iran can keep them up. The U.S. and some Arab states are almost sure to help Israel defend itself, as they have before.
Whether Iranians would turn on the regime is unclear. In some scenarios like this, you’d expect a rally-around-the-flag effect. But I’ve watched Iran for years, and my sense is that Iranians are so sick of the regime that many would welcome outside help in getting rid of it.
Israel isn’t finished. If they’re serious about incapacitating the Iranian nuclear program, they must hit the deep, underground facilities at Natanz and Fordow. That’s where the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program is located.
But only America’s GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bunker-busting bomb, would have a chance of doing any damage to Iran’s centrifuges. Donald Trump is refusing to sell the ordnance to Israel, which means that the Israelis are very limited in doing much damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
Might Israel try a special forces raid on Natanz and Fordow? As impossible as it may seem, Mossad has pulled off some incredible operations in recent years. Netanyahu, the gambler, may roll the dice and try it.
If Israel succeeds in toppling the Islamic regime in Tehran, the strike will have been worth it. But if Israel doesn’t—and honestly, regime change by airstrike alone has a pretty lousy track record, from Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 1986 to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 1991 and after or Yugoslavia’s Slobodan Milosevic in 1999—Iran will retain a residual nuclear capability. Israel’s national security advisor has already admitted as much. What then?
The answer from the Israelis, which I don’t believe, is that maybe Iran will then make a deal with Trump to disarm itself. It seems more likely to me that Iran will follow North Korea’s example, withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and finally getting around to building that nuclear weapon. It seems very unlikely that either Russia or China will support additional sanctions on Iran for doing so, given what has transpired, nor will they enforce existing sanctions. Russia, after all, is a major customer for Iran’s military drones, and China buys a lot of Iranian oil.
China can’t buy the oil if Iran can’t pump it out of the ground. Hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure may be Israel’s next play. It would serve the dual purpose of weakening the Iranian economy and getting Iranian citizens angry at the regime.
There are still a lot of targets on the board for Israel. Where they hit next will tell us much about their ultimate objectives.
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