I think the “Big Beautiful Bill” is a disgrace.
It’s not that there is nothing that is good in it–there is much that is. It’s just that it doesn’t address the most pressing issues. It is the legislative equivalent of only ever serving your kids candy and Kraft Macaroni and Cheese. They’ll be happy in the moment, but over time, they become fat, self-indulgent, and unhealthy.
America has become fat, self-indulgent, and suffers from the fiscal equivalent of worsening metabolic syndrome. I get why it has gotten that way. I am fat, more than a little self-indulgent, and I am fighting metabolic syndrome, even though I DO eat my vegetables and am eating healthier these days.
It’s just easier to put off that needed exercise until mañana. Looking like RFK takes work.
Republicans are supposed to be the Party of planning and self-restraint, Democrats the Party of Promises and Dessert. People used to say the Democrats were the Mommy Party and Republicans the Daddy. Mommies and Daddies aren’t what they used to be–fewer Moms blurt out “wait until Dad comes home!”
The Big Beautiful Bill is a Republican creation. Championed by Donald Trump and written by Republicans. And the people who demanded the bill include more cake and ice cream were Republicans.
Now that I have trashed the bill, how can I make a case (other than pure short-term politics) FOR it?
Pro-growth policies will outpace the deficit!
Many forecasts misinterpret President @realDonaldTrump‘s Big Beautiful Bill.
With strategic tax cuts, we can achieve 3% growth, slashing the deficit by $4 trillion over a decade. pic.twitter.com/JMIlSAum86
— Stephen Moore (@StephenMoore) May 19, 2025
I’m not sure that Stephen Moore is correct, but his case is that the pro-growth economic policies will outweigh the fiscal drag on the economy. This assertion is not absurd on its face, because the absolute size of the deficit is not the existential problem; it is the debt/GDP ratio that is so dangerous.
If growth can outpace the spending, then that ratio will improve, and the danger will recede. This is especially true because the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and its status as such is only shaky because people are losing faith that US fiscal policies will allow it to remain so. If that faith is restored, the US can borrow at interest rates that give us the privilege to spend beyond our means that few other countries enjoy.
.@VP on the Big Beautiful Bill: “The best way to defeat our debt long term is growth… If the economy is growing at 3% or even 4%, that is the way that you solve the problem. What this tax bill accomplishes fundamentally is it grows the American economy, I think, in the biggest… pic.twitter.com/clgmMy3kxX
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 8, 2025
After all, for all the flaws of our government policies, the US economy itself really is the most entrepreneurial in the world, leaving almost all others in the dust. As the saying goes, “When the US sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.” That’s why every country is grumbling about Trump’s renegotiation of trade deals, but is giving in to Trump’s demands, even though they are angry and don’t want to.
They need us more than we need them.
The key argument, aside from the good politics, for passing this bill is that it will spur economic growth, and fast economic growth is more important than fiscal restraint. It’s not a Keynesian argument–nobody is claiming the spending will spur growth–it’s the supply side argument–tax cuts will.
The One, Big, Beautiful Bill is pro-growth and pro-America.
Provisions like 100% immediate expensing, incentives for R&D in America, and enhancement of the Small Business deduction will usher in growth for small businesses and the manufacturing sector. pic.twitter.com/2DVWygci7G
— Ways and Means Committee (@WaysandMeansGOP) May 19, 2025
Everything hinges on whether the growth outpaces the spending. I am skeptical it will. As government revenues increase, legislators tend to see that as free money to spend as they like. The supply side argument presumes something not in evidence: that Congressional fiscal incontinence will be contained.
With the One Big, Beautiful Bill we can unleash American energy development, provide additional resources for border security, deliver pro-growth tax policies that will help working Americans, Main Street small businesses, and a manufacturing resurgence for our hard-working… pic.twitter.com/F9oePfldWq
— Congresswoman Beth Van Duyne (@RepBethVanDuyne) May 18, 2025
Obviously, the better path would be supply-side tax policies and fiscal constraints. Good luck getting that. It is a proven political loser, both in Congress and at the ballot box. The closest we ever got was Gramm-Rudman, which worked for a while.
Whether Moore is right is an empirical question, and he could be. I hope he is.
But I am skeptical.
