Virginia Republicans aim to replicate the Youngkin model of achieving high turnout in rural counties and limiting the damage in the commonwealth’s urban areas to overcome a new congressional map that heavily favors Democrats.
Lawmakers who represent the state’s conservative strongholds to the south and west said their constituents have been enthusiastic about opposing the redrawn map at the polls.
The voting model is named after Glenn Youngkin, who won the governorship in 2021 by following that strategy.
Interest in voting down the new map skyrocketed after the Democratic-controlled Legislature passed aggressive gun control bills during this session.
The proposed map is one of many redistricting skirmishes in Texas, California and elsewhere ahead of the midterms this fall. President Trump initiated the battle last summer as a way for Republicans to keep control of the House.
Virginia House Delegate Wren Williams said a key factor in the GOP’s success is getting undecided voters to flip to its side.
He added that leaving the new map off the ballot — which would show 10 of the proposed 11 congressional districts being anchored to Democratic bases — has insulted the average voter’s intelligence.
“The public is smarter than we give them credit for. They can tell this is a ruse, and it’s the independents who get a whiff of a smell that they don’t like,” the Patrick County Republican told The Washington Times. “They’re very frustrated that it’s so in your face, it’s so dishonest.”
Mr. Williams said that reaction is helping Republicans achieve the second prong of their strategy: keep it even in Richmond and Virginia Beach, plus put up a fight in the D.C. suburbs of Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties.
Yet this whole ordeal could be for naught. Several challenges to the redrawn map’s constitutionality are waiting before the Virginia Supreme Court, which said it did not want to rule on the referendum’s legality until after the April 21 election on whether people want the redrawn congressional map.
But conservative lawmakers don’t want to rely on judges to defend their 6-5 advantage in Congress.
Early voting analyses have turnout heading in the right direction for those opposed to the new map.
Data compiled by State Navigate, a nonprofit that tracks local issues in each state across the country, showed early voting for Virginia’s proposed congressional districts is up 102% compared with early voting for the governor’s race last fall.
“We’re, at this point, definitely seeing a trend to where the early vote is redder than 2025,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, the executive director for State Navigate. “In terms of the baseline of the electorate, western Virginia, which is very rural, Republicans are definitely turning out strong relative to the same day equivalent vote in 2025.”
Mr. Nuttycombe said Richmond has less activity so far, which he mentioned was expected because Gov. Abigail Spanberger is no longer on the ballot. Ms. Spanberger, a Democrat, grew up outside of Virginia’s capital and banked on those connections to win in November.
But Michael Foley, the elections coordinator for State Navigate, cautioned that Northern Virginia doesn’t open early voting until two weeks before Election Day. He said that could change the optimistic tone many Republican politicians have adopted.
Still, Democrats have sounded nervous about their map’s prospects.
U.S. Rep. Don Beyer said passing the redrawn districts is “not a done deal by any means.”
“We have to effectively make the case that even though this seems unfair in Virginia, it’s totally fair for America, for those of us who believe that taking back the House is the most significant thing we can do to stop Donald Trump,” the Democratic representative for parts of Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax told NBC News.
The new map has also taken heat from within the party.
Mark Moran, a Democratic primary challenger to Sen. Mark R. Warner, called out the redistricting effort as “extremely anti-democratic.”
“In every local Democratic committee I’ve been in, when this issue comes up, nobody can defend it, it’s just ‘well this is what the party says is best,’” he wrote on X this week.
He also disputed the argument that the new map would be temporary — as in, redistricting would happen again as scheduled in 2030 after the census is completed.
Mr. Williams, the Patrick County Republican, said framing the new map as a stopgap is further aggravating voters.
“The idea that this is temporary is just so condescending that people are [asking], ‘How is this temporary? Why are we doing this temporarily?” he said. “There’s just so many things that they’re trying to do that it’s all very hard to keep on the rails.”
