A dash of Article V, more than a pinch of land grab, and voila – an end to the war in Ukraine? Donald Trump and Steven Witkoff certainly hope so. Both Volodomyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin will find much to detest in this plan, but perhaps just enough in terms of concessions to swallow it.
Trump and Witkoff transmitted their 28-point plan to both leaders yesterday, and the Associated Press has already gamed this out as “decidedly favorable to Russia.” That’s not an unfair assessment, but it mainly reflects how the current status quo favors the Russians:
President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine would cede land to Russia and limit the size of Kyiv’s military, according to a draft obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.
The proposal, originating from negotiations between Washington and Moscow, appeared decidedly favorable to Russia, which started the war nearly four years ago by invading its neighbor. If past is prologue, it would seem untenable for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has opposed Trump’s previous calls for territorial concessions.
A side agreement aims to satisfy Ukrainian security concerns by saying a future “significant, deliberate and sustained armed attack” by Russia would be viewed as “threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.” The agreement, which was detailed by a senior U.S. official who was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter, does not obligate the United States or European allies to intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, although it says they would “determine the measures necessary to restore security.” …
For example, the proposal would not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but would also prevent the alliance’s future expansion. Such a step would be a significant victory for Moscow, which views NATO as a threat.
Let’s start with the halt on NATO expansion. Yes, that’s a concession, but it is only a concession in the most theoretical sense. What other country would we have offered NATO membership? Or to put it more bluntly: which other nation would Europe and the US go to war to protect? We’ve just spent nearly four years not defending Ukraine, and we actually did sign a memorandum in 1993 pledging to defend them in case of Russian attack. NATO added Finland and Sweden as a result of Putin’s attempt at conquest in Ukraine, which is as far as NATO would ever go. We haven’t added Ukraine, and we’re not going to add Georgia either.
The ground concessions are a nod to reality. Almost all of the land concessions in this plan are territory that Russia already occupies, and that Russia controlled since 2014. The remaining portion of the Donbas (14%, according to the AP) is an ethnic Russian territory that would align with Moscow rather than Kyiv as its leadership. Ceding that isn’t just an end to this war, but an attempt to stop the next war as well. Point 21 also requires Russia to withdraw from other territories it now controls, and further creates a demilitarized zone in the Donetsk Oblast. Russia will control it politically, but must remove its troops.
Perhaps surprisingly, Axios’ Barak Ravid offers a more balanced perspective on the 28-point plan. The security guarantee is stronger than the AP suggests, Ravid reports, amounting to a mini-Article V:
President Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine includes a security guarantee modeled on NATO’s Article 5, which would commit the U.S. and European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire “transatlantic community,” according to a draft obtained by Axios. …
It states that any future “significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack” by Russia on Ukraine “shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community,” and the U.S. and its allies will respond accordingly, including through military force.
- The document includes lines for signatures from Ukraine, the U.S., the EU, NATO and Russia. A senior White House official said Russia was briefed on the draft, but it’s unclear if President Vladimir Putin’s signature will ultimately be required.
- The security guarantee would be for an initial 10 years, and could be renewed by mutual consent.
In other words, Ukraine will be blocked from NATO membership – except for the one member benefit Putin actually fears. It’s a concession in name only. Furthermore, Putin has to pay $100 billion in reparations for rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure, while the US will enforce its own commercial treaty signed earlier this year to add more funds for the same purpose. Finally, Ukraine won’t enter NATO, but it can apply for EU membership, which was one of Putin’s sore points all along. He wanted Ukraine to be subordinate to Moscow on both military and economic policies, an issue that went all the way back to the original Orange Revolution twenty years ago.
Is this justice? Absolutely not. Justice would be the defeat of Russia at the hands of Ukraine and the full withdrawal of Russian troops and claims from pre-2014 sovereign Ukraine. However, four years of war have not settled this issue, nor have these years accomplished much for either side except industrialized death and destruction. The US and Europe will not send troops into Ukraine to fight Russia at this stage and touch off a world war. However, Trump has made clear that he can and will play the “escalate to de-escalate” game with Putin, and that Trump has no problem making good on his threats. That makes his security guarantee to Ukraine more credible now than any earlier US offer did.
It’s a serviceable peace plan rather than a just one, a plan that would at least stop the fighting at the status quo with enough teeth in it to ensure it doesn’t start again. It’s an off-ramp with enough incentives for both sides to consider taking it. Whether Putin and Zelensky choose to take the off-ramp is another question entirely.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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