President Trump and Republicans are staring down history, trying to stop Democrats from snatching the House in midterms that rarely go the president’s way.
With the clock already ticking toward November, the GOP’s headaches are piling up: off-year stumbles, red-state nail-biters and a president whose poll numbers are not inspiring confidence.
Democrats, meanwhile, have found a groove. Instead of leaning only into the anti-Trump drumbeat, they are hammering affordability — broadening their democracy is under threat — a warning that has defined their message in recent elections.
Still, Republicans aren’t panicking. They point out that redistricting has reduced the number of truly competitive races and argue that Democrats, with shaky poll numbers of their own, are far from a sure bet.
Messy primaries could push far-left candidates into general elections, and Republicans say that’s a recipe for disaster.
“House Republicans are in the majority and on offense,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm. “Vulnerable House Democrats are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans, and Republicans are taking the fight straight to their districts to unseat them next fall.”
The economy is the 800‑pound gorilla in the room.
If voters, particularly independent voters, start feeling relief on kitchen‑table issues — groceries, rent, gas — that could change everything.
The GOP insists it can reclaim the cost-of-living issue by touting Mr. Trump’s record and reminding voters that the economy looked far grimmer under former President Biden and the Democrats.
“Thanks to President Trump and his historic agenda that is making life better for hardworking American families, the Republican Party is poised to defy history,” said Kiersten Pels, spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “With the President’s unmatched ability to energize voters and campaign nationwide, Republicans will beat the odds, expand our majorities and deliver four full years of America First leadership.”
History says otherwise.
Since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost ground in the House in 38 of 41 midterms.
The sole exceptions were in 1934, 1998 and 2002.
In 2002, Republicans gained eight House seats, buoyed by the post-Sept. 11 focus on the war on terrorism.
The Democrats’ gains in 1998 were fueled in part by the electoral blowback against the Republican-led impeachment push against President Clinton.
In 1934, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was in his first term and benefited from strong support for his New Deal policy response to the Great Depression.
In recent elections, Republicans have struggled when Mr. Trump is not on the ballot.
During the first year of his first term, Democrats won the closely watched gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, where they also flipped seats in the general assembly.
Voters also approved Medicaid expansion in Maine and elected Doug Jones to the Senate from Alabama.
That momentum carried into 2018, when Democrats flipped 40 House seats and handed Rep. Nancy Pelosi the gavel.
Fast-forward to now, and Democrats are racking up wins again — sweeping governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, flipping seats in Georgia, even taking the Miami mayor’s office for the first time in nearly 30 years.
“The Democratic Party is back!” Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, said at the group’s recent winter meeting, predicting Democrats will flip the House and put a check on Mr. Trump’s remaining two years in office.
Republicans counter that the map looks different this time.
In 2018, 25 GOP incumbents represented districts Hillary Clinton carried, while a dozen Democratic-held seats were in districts Mr. Trump carried.
Today, the dynamic is flipped: 13 Democrats hold seats in Trump-won districts, while only seven Republicans hold seats in Kamala Harris-won districts.
Polls also suggested Republicans might be on a more solid footing than in 2018.
Back then, Mr. Trump’s approval rating was 37% approve, 58% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Now, he is at 44% approve, 53% disapprove.
In 2018, Democrats also held a larger lead at this point in the generic ballot.
