The number of college dropouts ages 18 to 64 rose for the second consecutive year to 37.6 million in 2023, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported Wednesday.
That was up 2.2% from the 36.8 million working-age people with “some college, no credential” that the nonprofit research center tallied before the start of the 2022-23 academic term. In July 2022, the number was up 2.9% from the year before.
The report noted that the number of dropouts as of July 2023 “far outpaced” the share of former students who reenrolled in programs and the tally of those who hit retirement age.
“Increases in the number of adults stopped out of college without a credential are the result of a structural issue in American higher education: There are regularly more stopouts than students reengaging after a stopout and earning credentials,” Jeremy Cohen, a clearinghouse research associate, told The Washington Times.
The report did not explain the rising tide of dropouts. According to the clearinghouse, reasons for dropping out can range from finances to administrative obstacles.
“However, our report does suggest that efforts to reengage students must go beyond any one institution, given that most students who do reenroll after a stopout switch institutions,” Mr. Cohen added.
Roughly 3,600 colleges send annual dropout data to the clearinghouse, representing 97% of higher education institutions. There were 18.1 million people enrolled in college in the fall of 2023.
The count covers people who left school for at least 18 months and has increased steadily since the Herndon, Virginia-based research group started tracking it in 2014.
Some higher education insiders not involved with the report said the annual findings confirm that most dropouts see no value in finishing their degrees.
“The report continues to suggest that the higher education market is not being responsive to a significant number of students,” said Gary Stocker, a former university administrator who founded College Viability to evaluate campuses’ financial health.
He noted that a rising flood of second-tier colleges have closed or merged since the pandemic due to cost increases, budget problems and shrinking revenue driven by declining birth rates.
They include private Limestone University in South Carolina and private St. Andrew’s University in North Carolina, two campuses founded in the 19th century that shuttered at the end of the spring semester. They also include public East Georgia State College, which recently announced a consolidation with Georgia Southern University.
“Higher education is still an industry with a significant imbalance between the number of colleges and the number of students willing to pay to go to those colleges,” Mr. Stocker added. “Until that economic equilibrium gets closer, there will continue to be consolidation in higher education in the form of both closures and mergers.”
Multiple reports show that more high school graduates have struggled to afford, apply for and complete college degrees since the COVID-19 outbreak shuttered campuses in the spring of 2020.
At the same time, a growing reliance on artificial intelligence has reduced the number of entry-level office jobs that formerly required a degree. This trend has contributed to a surge in young people enrolling in short-term microcredential programs for skilled trades and technology skills.
According to Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, nearly a third of annual job openings through 2031 will require some credential or certificate but no college degree.
Of the 37.6 million dropouts by the end of July 2023, the clearinghouse said Wednesday that only around 956,000 reenrolled or completed a credential. Roughly 418,000 others aged out of the working population.
Clearinghouse researchers have said that such numbers make it impossible to say how many dropouts never finish their programs.
Peter Wood, president of the conservative National Association of Scholars, said the rise of AI in late 2022 added to a decade-long trend of young people realizing that a college education is “an increasingly risky bet.”
“It may not be worth the several hundred thousand dollars in debt,” said Mr. Wood, a former associate provost at private Boston University. “Students in formerly hot majors like computer science are struggling to get jobs, salaries are lagging, and less lucrative majors are in even worse situations.”
