President Trump has a good chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, according to bettors on two of the most popular prediction platforms.
Mr. Trump currently ranks second on Polymarket and Kalshi, suggesting strong market support for the president receiving the prize.
According to the Polymarket, Mr. Trump has an 11% chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year. The president sits in second place behind Russian economist Yulia Navalnaya, who heads the Human Rights Foundation and has an 18% chance of taking home the prize.
On Kalshi, Mr. Trump is in second place with a 14% chance, while Ms. Navalnaya tops the list with a 21% chance.
Both platforms list significant support for other well-known activists and leaders, including Pope Leo XIV, environmental activist Greta Thunberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The markets also show that some humanitarian organizations have a decent chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. On Polymarket, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency holds a 9% chance of taking the prize, and on Kalshi, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms sit just behind Mr. Trump with a 12% chance.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which decides who receives the Peace Prize, does not officially make its decision based on market trends or overall popularity. However, Mr. Trump’s popularity in the markets highlights trader sentiment as well as the president’s campaign for the award.
Mr. Trump has made securing peace one of the chief goals of his second administration. While he was not able to end the war in Ukraine within one day, as he had boasted on the campaign trail, the White House has repeatedly made diplomatic moves to begin peace negotiations.
“In the past two weeks, we’ve probably had more progress in ending this war than we have in the past three and a half years,” Finnish President Alex Stubb told Mr. Trump during a roundtable meeting with European leaders this week.
Mr. Trump also brought together the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan for a peace summit on Aug. 8, ending a decades-long conflict. Leaders from both countries have promised to recommend Mr. Trump for the Peace Prize.
Leaders from Cambodia, Pakistan and Israel have also recommended Mr. Trump to the Nobel Committee.
