For the past three weeks, the Protection Racket Media has had a field day speculating that the war with Iran would split the MAGA base and infuriate those who demand America First policies. Poll after poll has contradicted that speculation. It turns out that the better question might be whether the war is splitting Donald Trump’s opposition.
Politico published a new poll this morning, taken this week, even while Iran forced a strangulation of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The poll shows sharp support for the war among Republicans, and even more robust support among self-identified MAGA voters, as previous surveys from NBC News and CNN have demonstrated. However, it also shows something else about overall support, as shown in the graphic tweeted out by Politico’s Erin Doherty:
The @POLITICO Poll finds that Trump’s 2024 voters are willing to accept the offensive, even as some of them say it violates MAGA principles or breaks his campaign promise not to start new wars. pic.twitter.com/diymuNm2EL
— Erin Doherty (@erinpdoherty) March 20, 2026
The percentage of respondents supporting the war in the MAGA and non-MAGA cohorts reflects the results of similar polling this week, even if the numbers differ slightly. Doherty’s report focuses on that aspect:
President Donald Trump’s war in Iran is testing the bounds of his “America First” agenda. So far, his supporters are sticking with him.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Trump’s 2024 voters are willing to accept the offensive, even as some of them say it violates MAGA principles or breaks his campaign promise not to start new wars. Their support is driven in large part by their unwavering trust in the president and his assurances the U.S. will only be involved “short term.”
But there are signs Trump’s hold could grow tenuous as he intensifies military action. Trump voters are more split on backing the war if it results in more lives lost. The president has called the strikes a success, but America’s increasing military build-up in the Middle East has spurred fears that the intervention will involve ground troops and result in a much longer conflict than expected.
The “signs” come from another question about whether the mission is worth the loss of more American lives. That’s a pretty loaded question, as it acts essentially to push the responder into an emotional choice. Even so, MAGA voters still support the mission by a wide margin, 58/32, while non-MAGA Republicans split nearly evenly at 44/41. Among all voters, support flips to opposition, but perhaps surprisingly by a bare majority, 32/50.
However, this highlights the real news from this poll. In the topline question, overall voters support the war with Iran, 43/33. It’s a plurality, to be sure, but it’s still a statistically significant split in favor of the war. The low level of outright opposition to the war should prompt questions about whether the war is in fact splitting Democrats – a question Doherty never even addresses. In fact, her analysis never even mentions Democrats or independent voters, let alone the ten-point plurality supporting the war.
What kind of split are Democrats and independents experiencing? Politico has its crosstabs in a link to an Excel document for downloading, so the data isn’t formatted for easy publication. However, the spreadsheet shows that ten percent of Democrat midterm voters strongly support the war, and another 14% choose “support,” combining for 24% of the party against 56% who oppose it. That is a far larger split than among GOP midterm voters overall, who support the war 74/10. Undecided midterm voters narrowly support the war 28/22, with the other half either undecided or unwilling to say.
Here are some other interesting demo splits on the topline question of support/opposition:
- Males: 53/30
- Females: 36/35
- 18-24YOs: 40/28
- 25-34YOs: 47/28
- College graduates: 46/38
- Black voters: 34/36
- Hispanics: 40/32
- Asian: 39/39
- Income
- Income $25-49K: 39/40
- Income $50-99K: 46/36
- Income >$100K: 55/29
These numbers paint a very cautionary picture for Democrats attempting a knee-jerk, defeatist opposition to the war effort. Their own strongest demographics show significant support for the war on Iran, probably because Democrat Party leaders have made Iran’s threat clear over the past few decades, as have Republican Party leaders. They may see this as it truly is – a long-overdue action to put an end to a clear and present danger to the US, our interests, and our allies, in that order.
The real question here isn’t a MAGA split, but whether Democrats may fracture on the war in the midterms … especially if the US and Trump succeeds in ending the threat from Iran. It’s very curious why the media has not asked that question, even when they have the data in their hands.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join Hot Air VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership!
