SEOUL, South Korea — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s already tenuous grasp on power has been shaken by a wave of resignations of key officials and calls by rebels in his Liberal Democratic Party for a leadership election Monday.
The ouster of the 68-year-old leader could augur in a rightward swing in Japanese politics.
The surprise rise of a far-right party has piled pressure on the center-right LDP. That challenge suggests a lawmaker from the party’s most conservative wing could take the helm of a nation that is a key ally of Washington in Indo-Pacific, and home to the largest contingent of GIs outside the U.S.
In a sign of the pressure mounting against Mr. Ishiba, four key party officials have announced resignations in recent days: the secretary general, the head of the Policy Affairs Research Council, the chairman of the General Council and the chief of the Election Strategy Council.
Meanwhile, former premier Taro Aso, an influential kingmaker inside the LDP who heads a 43-member faction, has called for a leadership election.
Japan’s Sankei Daily has released the names of 10 of Mr. Ishiba’s sub-ministerial-level cabinet members who also support a leadership election.
If, on Monday, a majority of LDP lawmakers favor an internal leadership race, the actual election is expected to be called within days or weeks. Party grass roots vote in the first stage of the process then, with the race narrowed down to front-runners, sitting party lawmakers vote in the final stage.
The winner of the ruling party race automatically inherits the premiership.
There has been widespread dissatisfaction within the party with Mr. Ishiba, who took office in October 2024 at a time when the LDP was beset with a range of scandals.
He has failed to regain public trust and has been unable to control inflation or a crisis that has seen the price of rice, Japan’s staple foodstuff, quadruple.
Under his leadership, the LDP has suffered three election disasters, losing its majorities in both the upper and lower houses of the Diet, as well as the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.
Mr. Ishiba has never been particularly popular with the public, but his low approval ratings have bounced in recent weeks after his negotiating team pulled off a relatively successful, last-minute tariff deal with their counterparties in Washington.
The open rebellion of party members indicates that dissatisfaction has boiled over.
“Ishiba’s initial defense of his decision to stay on as PM was framed in terms of his need to oversee difficult trade talks with the U.S. but with these now formally over, this argument has less cogency,” said John Nilsson-Wright, an East Asia expert at Cambridge University. “The cratering of internal party support makes it inconceivable that Ishiba can remain in post.”
The LDP is broadly conservative, but Mr. Ishiba is seen as middle-of-the-road. Japanese conservatives dissatisfied with the LDP have recently had a more radical alternative to vote for: Sanseito (“The Party for Participation”).
Founded in 2020, Sanseito identifies with the U.S. MAGA movement, Germany’s AfD party, and the U.K.’s Reform. It has criticized immigrants and has a “Japanese First” agenda.
In a surprise result, Sanseito captured 14 seats in July’s Upper House election, making it the fourth-biggest party in the chamber.
The need for the LDP to counter Sanseito offers a potential opening for veteran lawmaker Takaichi Sanae, who lost in the last leadership race to Mr. Ishiba.
Widely seen as the heir of the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving premier, she is a hardcore hawk.
“She has the advantage of being able to appeal to more right-wing conservatives within the LDP who are especially worried that their political terrain is at risk of being captured by Sanseito,” said Mr. Nilsson-Wright.
Mr. Nilsson-Wright is not alone in seeing a grim outlook for the embattled premier. Japan Times headlined its story on ongoing developments, “Darkest hour for Ishiba.”
However, some believe that he may cling on, due to fears among LDP moderates of a rightward swing that could impact Japan’s overseas image and foreign policy.
U.K. think tank Chatham House, in an analysis posted online today, wrote, “For many…the Sanseito threat and the prospect of Takaichi’s elevation, combine to make Ishiba the least objectionable available option.”
