After months of mudslinging, feisty debates, and relentless door-knocking, voters in Virginia and New Jersey head to the polls Tuesday to decide high-stakes races that could offer early clues about the national political mood ten months into President Trump’s second term and one year out from the 2026 midterms.
In New York, voters are weighing whether state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s socialist vision fits the needs of the country’s biggest — and priciest — city or whether they would rather turn back the clock with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s attempting a political comeback after resigning in 2021 because of sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.
Out west, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California could get a boost in his march toward a likely bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. If voters approve the new congressional maps he’s championing, it’ll be a win for Mr. Newsom and Democrats against redistricting in Republican-led states. And in Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court in contests that have drawn national attention.
Mr. Trump’s influence looms over it all.
While Tuesday’s contests are unfolding on mostly Democrat-friendly turf, the contests could be a warning sign for both parties headed into the 2026 midterm elections.
“This is one of those things where you have to read between the lines as to the strength of the Democratic or Republican sentiment because all the elections are playing out in states where voters went for Kamala Harris,” said John Couvillon, a pollster and political strategist. “The question then becomes, are they near Democratic victories with Republican wins, or are they wipeouts?”
Virginia
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, has held a steady lead in the polls over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race.
The winner will replace Republican Glenn Youngkin, who is barred from serving consecutive terms under Virginia’s Constitution.
Ms. Spanberger has run as a pragmatic problem-solver, vowing to address the rising costs of energy, housing, and health care.
Ms. Spanberger has kept Mr. Trump front and center in the race, tying Ms. Earle-Sears to his policies, including the DOGE cuts to federal agencies and the firing of federal employees that have hit Virginia, home to over 140,000 government workers.
Ms. Earle-Sears has put Ms. Spanberger on her heels over thorny transgender issues, criticizing the Democrat for supporting biological men in women’s sports and locker rooms.
Ms. Earle-Sears also has pressured Ms. Spanberger to demand Jay Jones drop out of the race for attorney general after reports surfaced that he mused in 2022 text messages about killing the then-Republican speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates.
The bombshell revelations have boosted Republican Jay Miyares’s re-election bid and the GOP’s hopes, as they look to avoid a statewide Democratic sweep and emerge with some bragging rights.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi has a slight polling lead over John Reid.
Political insiders are also keeping close tabs on the Virginia House of Delegates.
All 100 seats are up for grabs. Democrats are hoping to expand their slim majority as they consider redrawing the state’s congressional lines to make gains next fall.
New Jersey
Of all the contests on the map Tuesday, the New Jersey governor’s race might be the most attractive — and attainable — prize for Republicans. They’re hoping to build on the gains Mr. Trump made in the traditionally deep-blue state during the 2024 election.
On the ballot: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state lawmaker.
Both are pitching plans to tackle rising energy and housing costs — but their visions, and their tone, couldn’t be more different.
Ms. Sherrill has positioned herself as a center-left moderate.
She has been criticized for coming across as too choreographed and too canned on the stump, raising questions about whether the party’s base, including minority communities, will turn out.
Ms. Sherrill has tried to harness the anti-Trump sentiment in the state by branding Mr. Ciattarelli as a Trump loyalist. She’s called him the “Trump of Trenton” and warned that he’s too weak to push back against what she describes as chaos and corruption from the White House. She’s also promised to stand firm against Trump-era policies on tariffs and abortion.
Mr. Ciattarelli argues that New Jersey needs a governor who can work with the White House — not against it.
He’s pledged to roll back Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy’s “sanctuary” policies and give local police more authority to cooperate with federal immigration agents, especially in targeting violent undocumented immigrants.
He also has vowed to lower property taxes and change the state’s formula for funding K-12 schools.
Mr. Ciattarelli, who is running for governor for a third time, is carrying momentum into Election Day. The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Ms. Sherill has a 3-point lead, but Mr. Ciattarelli has been steadying, gaining ground on her.
All 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly are also on the ballot.
Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani has charted a far different and bolder course from Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Sherill, running a charismatic campaign centered on lifting the working class in a city that is home to more billionaires than anywhere else in the world.
Mr. Mandani’s wishlist ranges from free child care to city-run grocery stores and a four-year rent freeze on roughly a million apartments. To pay for his vision, he unabashedly supports higher taxes on the wealthiest 1% and large corporations.
The little-known state assemblyman with a thin employment and legislative record shocked the political world by defeating Mr. Cuomo by almost 13 points in the Democratic primary.
Mr. Cuomo, in turn, announced he was running as an independent, and has been playing catch-up ever since. Republican Curtis Sliwa is also running in a long-shot bid.
The 67-year-old Mr. Cuomo has leaned into his executive experience, arguing that the 34-year-old Mr. Mamdani, born to Indian parents in Uganda, is not equipped to lead the city. He warns that Mr. Mamdani’s socialist vision would harm the city.
Mr. Mamdani’s rise has seized the attention of the political world. Mr. Trump, during an appearance on CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday, derided him as a “communist, not a socialist.”
“He is far worse than socialist,” Mr. Trump said, warning it would be hard for him to release federal funds to New York if Mr. Mamdani is elected.
Mr. Mamdani has also divided the Democratic Party.
He notched early endorsements from fellow democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and “Squad” leader Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and, more recently, from Gov. Kathy Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Yet key figures — including Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and other members of New York’s congressional delegation — have withheld their endorsements.
Others, including Mr. Jeffries, have pushed back against Mr. Trump and Republicans as they seek to cast Mr. Mamdani as the new leader of the Democratic Party.
Asked over the weekend whether Mr. Mamdani embodies the party’s future, Mr. Jeffries responded: “No.”
Proposition 50
Mr. Newsom is urging Democrats to fight fire with fire in California, arguing they must set aside traditional political norms to combat Mr. Trump.
With that as a backdrop, Mr. Newsom and Democrats are asking voters in California to pass a referendum that would replace the work of the state’s independent redistricting commission with a more Democratic-friendly map.
The ballot question is Proposition 50 — The Election Rigging Response Act.
It is a response to the Trump-inspired Republican push in Texas, where lawmakers broke with tradition earlier this year by adopting new congressional districts that could help the GOP net five seats and defend their slim House majority next fall.
“He is not screwing around,” Mr. Newsom said of Mr. Trump on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “He’s changing the rules. He’s rigging the game because he knows he’ll lose if all things are equal. He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.”
Surveys show the referendum is likely to pass.
