Five incumbent Republicans whose races were originally viewed as leaning red are no longer safe in their seats, according to a new analysis by the Cook Political Report.
The group, which provides nonpartisan analyses of elections and campaigns, released its latest ratings of House races Thursday, favoring Democrats to control the lower chamber of Congress. Cook shifted 18 House races toward Democrats.
“Ten months out from Election Day, it’s increasingly clear that Democrats are in a strong position to win control of the House this November,” wrote Erin Covey, the U.S. House of Representatives editor.
As partisan gerrymandering efforts and battleground state campaigns are painting a preview of November’s midterm election, the report predicts that Democrats have “more than enough opportunities” to win a majority of the House.
President Trump’s unpopular polling numbers, driven by Americans’ widespread frustration over the economy, and Democratic candidates’ over-performance in special elections, point to a “favorable environment for Democrats,” the report said.
But strong Democratic opponents are making five Republicans in particular more vulnerable, Ms. Covey told The Washington Times.
Among the battleground races reclassified as toss-ups are GOP Reps. Mike Lawler of New York and Zach Nunn of Iowa. Both Republicans represent districts that are more purple-hued by nature.
The reason their respective races were moved into the toss-up category had less to do with personal failures and more with Democratic over-performance.
Mr. Nunn’s district went for Mr. Trump in 2024, while Mr. Lawler’s district preferred former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Ms. Covey said two factors will determine the trajectory of Mr. Lawler’s race: The governor’s race, in which Democrat Kathy Hochul is seeking reelection, and the district’s Democratic primary.
How the GOP gubernatorial candidate will perform in his district and a potentially contested, crowded Democratic primary with two front-runners ready to take him out will determine the race.
But Mr. Lawler has a strong fundraising background with a more moderate profile, both of which could help him, Ms. Covey said.
Three “solid” red seats were moved to the “likely” Republican category: Reps. Jeff Crank of Colorado, Cory Mills of Florida and Andy Ogles of Tennessee.
Mr. Crank is in the least red seat out of the three; his district has shifted to the left more than any seat in the country, according to a Cook analysis.
Democrats will fundraise heavily. But Mr. Crank did outperform the president in the 2024 election, Ms. Covey said, a testimony to his grip on his new seat.
The other two incumbents moved to the “likely” Republican category have faced scandals that could reshape their voters’ opinions of them.
Mr. Mills is a scandal-ridden incumbent who could be in trouble because his district is not Republican enough, Ms. Covey said. But Florida’s initiative to redraw a more GOP-friendly map makes this subject to change.
Mr. Ogles’ district went for Mr. Trump in 2024, but he has not faced a heavy Democratic opponent yet and will see a strong opponent in the GOP primary.
He has a federal investigation into his campaign finance hovering over him, and has barely raised money as an incumbent, Ms. Covey said.
This personal baggage is a “perfect storm” for a Democrat to snatch the seat, but the forecast might change, she added.
On the Democratic side, Cook moved two battleground seats to a rating of “toss up”: Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio.
Assuming the analysis’s ratings are correct, the GOP would need to lock down roughly three-quarters of the toss-up races to keep control of the House if the election were held today, Ms. Covey wrote. House Democrats only need to flip three seats to win a majority.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee responded to the report with optimism: “Democrats are taking back the House in November.”
