For the third time in less than a year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting Washington, D.C., and U.S. President Donald Trump. This is the sixth meeting between the two leaders, including a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly at the UN last month.
The first meeting in February did not go well for the Ukrainian leader. Trump and Vice President JD Vance read him the riot act in what must have been a painful and humiliating experience. The two Americans made it abundantly clear to Zelensky that the gravy train of unlimited U.S. arms to Ukraine was over, and he had better start thinking about how he was going to end the war.
Since then, the two men have reached an understanding of sorts. Trump is sympathetic but is adamant that Zelensky give up something to end this now senseless conflict. Until Zelesnky understands that fundamental truth and abandons the idea that Ukraine can win back all the territory that Russia conquered in the last two years, Putin will have no reason to make a deal.
This doesn’t mean that Zelensky isn’t going to try to improve his negotiating position. To that end, he’s come to Washington looking for a weapon that could alter the strategic situation.
Zelensky wants Tomahawk cruise missiles.
The hyper-accurate missiles have a range of 1,500 miles, meaning they could easily reach Moscow from Ukrainian territory, as well as several key military installations, including launching sites for Russian missiles and drones that are crippling Ukraine’s power grid. Trump initially said he might supply the missiles but is now backing away from those statements.
Zelensky has called on the US to provide Ukraine with the advanced missiles, which have a range of 2,500 km (1,500 miles).
Asked earlier this week if Trump was considering giving Ukraine Tomahawks, he said: “We’ll see… I may.”
But when asked about the same prospect following his call with Putin, Trump said “we can’t deplete” the US stockpile of Tomahawks, adding “we need them too… so I don’t know what we can do about that”.
Writing on his Truth Social platform after his call with Putin concluded, Trump said he and the Russian president “spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the United States when the War with Ukraine is over”.
He said “high level advisers” from both countries would meet at an unspecified location next week, with the Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the American delegation.
Trump also said he would update Zelensky on his talks with Putin on Friday, adding: “I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation.”
Ukraine’s attacks on oil refineries have caused production to drop by 40%, according to the Washington Post. “Russia’s fuel market is facing a shortfall equal to about one quarter of monthly gasoline demand, a Russian business daily reported, according to the Post.
“If the United States can shake loose a couple hundred Tomahawks and the Ukrainians focus them all on Russian energy facilities, that could hurt Russia enough that it might be willing to negotiate,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Trump’s cautionary note that “we need [the Tomahawks] too” is real. The U.S. paused weapons shipments to Ukraine in July after the Pentagon became alarmed at the low level of some weapons stockpiles. In fact, near the end of the Biden administration, senior Pentagon officials raised alarms that U.S. and European manufacturers could not keep up with the demand for munitions, including basics like 155mm artillery shells. This concern was a factor as the Biden administration planned its final aid packages for Ukraine.
The BBC points out some limitations to the Tomahawk that make large shipments to Ukraine problematic.
Ukraine’s navy does not have the necessary ships to operate them, and the US has a small number of launchers needed for the missiles – typically mounted on ships and submarines.
The US reinstated its Tomahawk land-based mobile launcher programme, Typhon, in 2023. Its military has at least two Typhon launchers, but it is unlikely to have many more.
The possibility of the US sending Ukraine long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles would cause “extreme concern”, Peskov said on Sunday, adding such a move would be viewed in Russia as “a major escalation.”
Also, the Tomahawks couldn’t be used effectively without U.S. intelligence choosing targets. This means that the Americans will veto some targets Zelensky might want to hit.
Zelensky is not going to get 200 Tomahawks. He will be happy if he gets half of that. But the larger issue of getting Zelensky and Putin to sit down and talk peace will not be affected by this sale or any arms sale.
Putin and Trump will meet in the next two weeks, probably in Budapest. Will Zelensky be there? Trump has pulled rabbits out of his hat before, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he shows up.
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