When Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed the new Texas maps into law, the scoreboard in the redistricting battle showed a likely 5-seat gain for the GOP and zilch for Democrats.
From here, things could get worse for Democrats.
Democrats have found hope in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to have California voters decide whether they want to switch out the work of the state’s independent redistricting commission in favor of a more Democratic-friendly map to offset the GOP gains in Texas.
However, Mr. Newsom’s effort faces stiff opposition from a unique coalition that includes President Trump, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Charles Munger Jr.
Mr. Munger, the heir of the late Berkshire Hathaway billionaire, helped bankroll the effort that created the state’s independent redistricting commission. He already invested $10 million into killing Mr. Newsom’s ballot measure.
The battle could trigger over $200 million in spending, according to political analysts, who also note that it may face fierce legal challenges if it passes.
Republicans, meanwhile, face fewer hurdles in the red states of Indiana, Missouri and Ohio, where they are considering the Trump-inspired mid-decade map changes that could boost the GOP’s chances of defending their thin House majority in the midterm elections next year.
“Republicans have farther to run,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. “There are more Republican states to slice and dice.”
Redistricting typically occurs every decade, based on the results of the new census.
In Indiana, the appetite for redrawing the congressional maps is growing.
That became clear after dozens of Indiana Republican lawmakers recently traveled to Washington to meet with Vice President J.D. Vance and White House officials to discuss an array of issues, including redistricting.
Mr. Trump also met with Indiana Senate President Rodric Bray and state House Speaker Todd Huston.
Afterward, state Rep. Jim Lucas told the IndyStar, “I’m not as opposed to it as I was.”
Attorney General Todd Rokita, who would have to defend changes to the state maps, also issued a lengthy statement before the meetings, saying he supports the effort because “illegal immigrants” skewed the 2020 census, and that led to an unfair map in California.
“I’m done bringing a knife to a gunfight against aggressive, nonstop left-wing tactics,” Mr. Rokita said. “It’s time to fight on an even playing field and secure fair representation for our state.”
Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, remains undecided about calling a special session to change the maps, stating that it is up to legislative leaders to decide.
Recent polling indicates that a majority of Indiana voters oppose the idea.
Mr. Vance insists Republicans are simply following the lead of Democrats from blue states such as Massachusetts, where 36% of voters backed Mr. Trump in the 2024 election. Still, there are no Republicans in the congressional delegation.
“All we’re doing, frankly, is trying to make the situation a little bit more fair on a national scale,” Mr. Vance said recently on NBC News. “The Democrats have gerrymandered their states really aggressively.”
“We think there are opportunities to push back against that,” he said. “And that’s really all we’re doing.”
