SEOUL, South Korea — After a week of intense intraparty drama, South Korea’s conservative People Power Party has chosen a candidate who — if polls prove accurate — looks set to suffer one of the greatest defeats in Korea’s democratic history in the presidential election on June 3.
A country that has been deeply polarized after a monthslong political crisis is facing a choice of two candidates who bestride extremes of the political spectrum — albeit, one has been working furiously in recent months to reposition himself on middle ground.
The June 3 presidential election is a snap plebiscite forced upon one of America’s leading regional allies after the impeachment of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol. Mr. Yoon’s removal from office ended a long and fraught process after he declared martial law on Dec. 3 — a move that shook a country that had long believed such tactics belonged in its pre-democratic past.
‘Big tent’ collapses
Kim Moon-soo, 73, who won the PPP primary on May 6, was registered Sunday as the party’s presidential candidate. Speaking to PPP lawmakers, he stressed the need for “one team.”
The plea is relevant.
His rival for the leadership of the conservative bloc, former premier and former acting president Han Duck-soo, has been effectively sidelined after a bruising battle that has exposed fractures within the PPP just three weeks before voting day.
Though Mr. Han was not a party member — a long-term technocrat, he has held posts in both conservative and progressive administrations — he has consistently gained higher approval ratings than Mr. Kim in public polls in recent weeks.
Mr. Han resigned from the acting presidency on May 1. There was widespread expectation that the middle-of-the-roader who has forged an image as “a safe pair of hands” would create a united front with Mr. Kim under a so-called “Big Tent” deal.
However, Mr. Kim — who had signaled multiple times that he would accept a unified candidacy prior to winning the party primacy — reversed course.
That triggered a fraught week in conservative politics. The PPP leadership urged Mr. Kim to merge his campaign with Mr. Han, but though the two met multiple times, they failed to strike a deal.
Both sides played hardball. A move by Mr. Kim’s supporters to legally block Mr. Han was overturned, and a late-night move by supporters of Mr. Han to put his name on the ballots failed. Eventually, an intra-party vote found for Mr. Kim.
The PPP has not released actual numbers, beyond saying Mr. Kim won the vote.
That choice may lay the foundation for the opposition Democratic Party of Korea to win one of Korea’s biggest electoral victories since the nation democratized in 1987.
According to every one of the 13 public opinion polls published since May 1, the DPK candidate, Lee Jae-myung, 61, now has a clear run at the Blue House.
His approval ratings in those polls veer between a low of 45 percent and a high of 52.9 percent. By contrast, Mr. Kim’s numbers range between a low of 6.4 percent and a high of 20 percent. Mr. Kim’s polling compares unfavorably with Mr. Han’s, whose approval ratings range from 13.2 to 30.5 percent.
The big question now is how many of Mr. Han’s erstwhile supporters will transition across to Mr. Kim. Some almost certainly will: Mr. Lee, while widely loved on the left, is widely despised on the right.
Mr. Kim and Mr. Han embraced during a photo opp Sunday, and the latter told the former that he would lend his support. However, Mr. Han did not respond to an offer Mr. Kim made, that he become his campaign manager over the next three weeks.
“He seems to have dropped out,” said Yang Sun-mook, who was an adviser in Mr. Han’s camp during his brief campaign. “I think he is going back home.”
Mr. Yang said he doubted whether a large percentage of floating voters would gravitate toward Mr. Kim.
“He has been stigmatized as a strong right-winger in recent years, so middle-ground voters may not listen to him over the next three weeks,” Mr. Yang said. “I think there will be a massive gap [on June 3] between Lee and Kim.”
Kim vs. Lee
Mr. Kim is a former labor activist who subsequently turned to conservative politics. He became the governor of Gyeonggi Province, the province surrounding Seoul — a position subsequently held by his opponent on June 3, Mr. Lee.
He served as Labor Minister under Mr. Yoon, and — unlike some PPP members — refused to condemn him. He opposed Mr. Yoon’s impeachment and has refused to issue an apology for martial law.
On Sunday, he said he would reach out to third-party candidates. But time is running out, and he is leading a party that is badly fractured.
Mr. Kim has urged the country not to allow the DPK’s Mr. Lee, whom he accuses of being an extremist and of “falsehoods and crimes,” to become president.
Mr. Lee was formerly seen as fiercely anti-Japanese: He spoke emotively at anti-Japan rallies when the now-disgraced Mr. Yoon was pioneering new security relationships with Tokyo. He was also seen as pro-Beijing, after holding a controversial meeting with the Chinese ambassador in 2023. During his earlier career as a regional governor, he had displayed socialist tendencies, experimenting with universal basic income.
He has also been buffeted by endless legal allegations, ranging from corrupt practices while a city mayor to illegally sending funds to North Korea.
However, with the presidency in sight, Mr. Lee has been rapidly shifting rightwards. In February he rebranded the DPK “center right” — to the consternation of some party members – and has held high-profile meetings with Samsung Electronics’ chairman and the acting U.S. ambassador to Korea.
One of the DPK’s leading foreign policy thinkers, Lawmaker Wi Sung-lac, recently told The Washington Times that the party favors ongoing trilateral defense cooperation with Japan and has no plans to make changes to the U.S. alliance, nor to tilt toward China.
Mr. Lee’s legal luck continues to hold. On May 1, the Supreme Court sent a perjury case back to the Seoul High Court for retrial. If found guilty before June 3, Mr. Lee’s presidential candidacy could have been disqualified.
However, the latter court scheduled Mr. Lee’s hearing for June 18. By that date — assuming he wins the presidency — he will be immune to all charges beyond insurrection and treason.
Mr. Yoon is facing both.
