Donald Trump has the Iranian economy by the shorthairs.
In fact, he has most of the world’s economies in his grip right now. By instituting a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, he has managed to demonstrate to everybody who is piling on and doing their best to destroy Donald Trump by exploiting the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz that he does, indeed, hold all the cards.
2/10 CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5M barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel), though with minimal proceed repatriation due to banking sanctions. A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.
Over 90% of Iran’s $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, “$78 billion a year in energy revenue.
2/10 CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5M barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel), though with minimal proceed repatriation due to banking sanctions. A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That’s $139M/day, gone.
Duane wrote about the game of chicken between Iran and the United States, arguing correctly that Iran is driving a Yugo and speeding toward the United States’ Mack truck. It’s a great piece, and it shows how desperate Iran’s negotiating position is.
4/10 NON-OIL EXPORTS: Iran’s non-oil trade hit $51.7B in 2025. After subtracting petrochemicals, ~$88M/day in goods (minerals, metals, etc.) flow through Persian Gulf ports. Roughly 90% would be blocked. That’s another ~$79M/day in lost revenue.
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
Until now, Iran has been able to conduct its side of the war while simultaneously keeping its economy afloat through oil exports. The closure of the Strait to ships that have docked at Iranian ports or paid the Iranian Mullahgeld (Ed’s invention!) cuts off Iran’s economic lifeline. It’s hard to run a country without money.
6/10 ALTERNATIVES? Iran’s options outside the Strait are negligible. Jask, the much-touted bypass, operates at a fraction of its 1M bbl/day design capacity. Only 10 of 20 storage tanks were built. Effective throughput: ~70K bbl/day. Chabahar handles just 8.5M tons/year. The five…
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) April 12, 2026
What many people have not yet realized is how devastating Trump’s move is to those EU countries that are stabbing us in the back by trying to cut separate deals with Iran. Nor do many people understand how deep the betrayals have been. Our so-called allies have been stroking Iran at the UN, and the French directly sided with Iran on opening the Gulf, hoping to cut a separate deal with the IRGC.
Our NATO allies just voted to put Iran, which just killed tens of thousands of its own citizens, on a UN council that oversees human rights.
The following countries backed Iran’s nomination:
United Kingdom 🇬🇧
Spain 🇪🇸
Canada 🇨🇦
France 🇫🇷
Germany 🇩🇪
Norway 🇮🇸
Netherlands 🇳🇱
Australia 🇦🇺
Switzerland 🇨🇭
Austria 🇦🇹
Finland 🇫🇮 https://t.co/jCW61Tjdja— Yehuda Teitelbaum (@chalavyishmael) April 10, 2026
They’ve denied us the use of their bases, their airspace, and denounced us, all while hiding behind our skirts in matters of defense.
Guess what, guys? Those deals you wanted to make with Iran? Not gonna happen.
That’s what I mean by Trump having all the cards. It’s not just Iran that is at his mercy. It’s our backstabbing allies. It’s China, which is learning a lesson about threatening US power in Southeast Asia.
We hold the power to close down your economies. In fact, we can make you buy oil from the US just to stay alive.
Look at it. Just look at it. Glorious. https://t.co/15AgSfeZ9s pic.twitter.com/nNXFtFowjj
— Andrew Beck (@AndrewBeckUSA) April 12, 2026
Australia and Great Britain are literally running out of gas. Britain could have avoided this—they used to have a thriving oil industry, but the Nut-Zero folks have worked to destroy it, and here is the result.
“A ship tracking firm reports 121 empty oil tankers are making their way to the United States… President Trump has urged countries squeezed by Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz to turn to American energy supplies instead.” pic.twitter.com/1UBqybljJx
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 13, 2026
China and Europe had yet to learn how much their prosperity is due to US benevolence, but they are learning now. The United States has relied on soft power, for the most part, to maintain its leadership, but the Democrats frittered it away by kowtowing to the transnationalists, who took the lesson that the technocrats could rule the world.
Trump is giving them all a lesson in what hard power looks like. So is Israel. And smart countries are learning the lesson.
JUST IN – U.S. announces a defense partnership with Indonesia. pic.twitter.com/hq2CQNVlaa
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 13, 2026
Soft power gave Iran the path to nuclear weapons. Hard power is taking that path and blowing it up, while collecting allies in the Middle East along the way. Rumors are that Saudi Arabia is considering joining the Abraham Accords and building a pipeline that traverses Israel when all this is done.
Europeans are butthurt. I get it, and a divorce would be painful for both sides. But sometimes divorces are inevitable, and the US will leave this one with most of the assets.
Of course, the war’s not over. But all these countries that thought they had the cards are learning that Trump can change the game. Their cards are not worth what they thought.
When somebody has your economic life in their hands, soft power goes limp.
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