Iran’s regime won’t fall — and Israel’s assassinations may be making it stronger

TLDR

• Israel has killed scores of Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Khamenei — the regime is still standing
• Khamenei was replaced within a week by his own son, who is holding the same hard-line positions
• Analysts warn the campaign may be backfiring by empowering hard-liners over pragmatists
• President Trump says the U.S. is quietly negotiating with at least one senior Iranian official even as strikes continue

The Islamic Republic of Iran has taken a staggering number of hits — and keeps standing.

Israel’s intense assassination campaign has killed scores of Iranian officials over the past four weeks, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. His death had long been viewed as a potential earthquake for the Iranian government. Instead, his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stepped in within a week and is holding his father’s hard-line positions.

Three more senior officials died in Israeli airstrikes last week alone. Iran keeps filling the vacancies — and analysts say the replacements are more hard-line than the officials they’re replacing.

“If anything, they seem to have a unifying hardening effect,” said Bamo Nouri, a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of West London.

That concerns analysts who say eliminating pragmatic voices makes a peace deal harder to reach.

“At some point … you will have the fundamental problem of who’s actually going to be the political voice from the other side,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute.

Meanwhile, President Trump confirmed this week that the U.S. is negotiating with at least one senior Iranian official — but won’t reveal who, saying it could endanger that person’s life.

Read more:

• Israel has assassinated many of Iran’s key leaders. How is the regime in Tehran still standing?