As states rush to redraw their congressional maps, President Trump moved Thursday to get his team involved, saying he’s ordered the government to conduct a new count of the country’s residents — but this time without illegal immigrants.
If it comes to fruition, it could shift several seats from states with high illegal immigrant populations, but it would also spark some hefty constitutional questions.
Mr. Trump announced his intentions on social media, saying he had “instructed” the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, to “immediately” start work on a “new and highly accurate” count.
“People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” he said.
A slimmed-down census count without illegal immigrants has long been a goal of some conservatives who argue for it on the grounds of principle and politics.
They say illegal immigrants aren’t part of the broader body politic that should be counted, and they fear Democrat-led states and localities end up with more seats in Congress and state legislatures when illegal immigrants are counted.
But that tests the Constitution, which calls for seats to be doled out based on a count of the “whole number of free persons.” It excepted Indians “not taxed” and also included the infamous three-fifths compromise for counting those living under slavery.
The Constitution also called for the count — and apportionment of seats based on that count — to happen “within every subsequent term of ten years,” and left it to Congress to legislate on how.
Whether that covers a new count as Mr. Trump envisions it is likely to be tested in courts.
The Washington Times has sought comment from the Commerce Department and the Census Bureau for this story.
In a study published earlier this year, two demographers, John Robert Warren and Robert E. Warren, calculated that if illegal immigrants hadn’t been included in the 2020 count used for apportioning seats that it would have shifted two seats, going from Texas and California to New York and Ohio.
The shifts would have been larger a decade earlier, after the 2010 census, when California would have lost three seats, and Texas and Florida one apiece, with the gains going to Montana, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina.
Whether those seats would have shifted from one party to the other would have depended on other factors, such as how state lawmakers drew their specific maps.
The shifts would also have affected the Electoral College, though not enough to change the results of either election.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia Republican, has announced legislation to exclude illegal immigrants from the census count.
Mr. Trump, touring Florida’s Gator Gitmo migrant detention facility last month with Gov. Ron DeSantis, said they backed the idea.
“Ron would love it. I would love it,” said Mr. Trump.
Mr. DeSantis, for his part, was skeptical of the notion that little would change politically.
“We only got one seat in the last Census,” he said. “Are you trying to tell me that Florida only had one seat in that? We should have had at least two. Texas should have had another one. That could be the difference in the House of Representatives, and the majority.”
Mr. Trump attempted to adjust the census during his first term, seeking to add a question about citizenship to the 2020 count. Just before the final deadline for printing the forms, the Supreme Court stepped in and shut him down.
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., writing the key opinion, said Mr. Trump likely did have legal authority to make such a move, but in this case didn’t follow the correct rulemaking process for adding a new question.
Mr. Trump in 2020 also tried to order his Commerce Department to provide states with a census count that didn’t include illegal immigrants.
That drew an immediate legal challenge. A three-judge panel ruled Mr. Trump’s order illegal. The president appealed to the Supreme Court, which held the matter was premature and vacated the lower court ruling.
President Biden rescinded the Trump policy on taking office, setting Mr. Trump up for his do-over now.
In his Truth Social announcement Thursday, Mr. Trump said the new count he’s ordered will be “based on modern day facts and figures” and use “the results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024.”
Apportionment is the process of divvying up the U.S. House’s 435 seats among the states. They then redistrict, which is the process of drawing congressional district lines.
While that’s usually done after the decennial census, GOP-led Texas is trying to redraw its lines now to undo several districts drawn to maximize minority voters’ power.
That started the dominoes toppling, with Democrat-led states saying they’ll retaliate with their own redistricting.
