Millions of dollars have been wagered on the next pontiff as the papal conclave kicks off, with Cardinal Pietro Parolin leading the betting odds.
As the College of Cardinals convenes in Rome’s Sistine Chapel on Wednesday, online prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have rendered the secretive papal conclave a global wagering event.
Since Pope Francis died April 21, the platforms have logged more than $17 million in bets, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Bettors can “buy” a cardinal like they can a stock — wagering that he’ll walk out in white — or “sell” him, betting he won’t claim the papal throne. Payouts rise and fall with the odds, turning the conclave into a holy futures market.
“There’s a huge level of interest globally,” Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, which tracks betting trends across markets, told The Associated Press. “I don’t think we’ve had a market like this where we’ve had so many countries interested in seeing odds.”
As of Wednesday, Polymarket’s odds show these seven men as the top contenders:
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• Cardinal Parolin (Italy, 70) – 30% chance. The Vatican’s current secretary of state and a seasoned diplomat, Cardinal Parolin is widely viewed as a pragmatic and steady hand — less charismatic than Pope Francis, but perhaps better suited to calm the waters after three eventful papacies.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67) – 19% chance. A former Manila archbishop and current Vatican official, Cardinal Tagle is often called the “Asian Francis” for his liberal leanings and personal warmth.
• Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69) – 12% chance. The head of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, Cardinal Zuppi is a Francis ally known for his street-level pastoral work and commitment to the poor and migrants.
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60) – 9% chance. The Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pizzaballa has worked on peace initiatives in the Middle East and spoken out against both Hamas and Israeli attacks on civilians.
• Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76) – 8% chance. A veteran of Vatican bureaucracy with deep ties to African Catholicism, Cardinal Turkson led the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development before stepping down in 2021.
• Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72) – 7% chance. A quiet conservative and former head of Europe’s bishops, Cardinal Erdo is viewed as a pragmatic compromise candidate.
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• Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79) – 6% chance. A theological heavyweight and outspoken critic of liberalizing trends in the Church, • Cardinal Sarah is a favorite among traditionalist Catholics.
Trailing these seven are dozens of other cardinals, any one of whom could rise quickly once the voting begins inside the chapel.
Cardinal Parolin’s close ties to the late Francis and his top ranking in the betting markets don’t mean he’s a shoo-in, according to Tom Nash, a contributing apologist for Catholic Answers.
“I think some cardinals who are faring well among the oddsmakers and media, including because of the prominent role they had under Pope Francis, may actually have less of a chance than some others who are considered long shots,” he told Catholic News Agency.
In 2005, betting markets correctly called Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, who became Pope Benedict XVI.
In 2013, they gave Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio just a 4% chance — before he emerged as Pope Francis.
“Current betting odds, favoring cardinals like Parolin and Tagle, probably reflect general perceptions, media attention and public profile rather than special insider knowledge or highly accurate predictive insight,” Leighton Vaughan Williams, an economics professor at Britain’s Nottingham Business School, told the Journal.
Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, agreed.
“It’s not a trivially small market, but it’s quite small by comparison,” he told USA Today, noting that betting on U.S. presidential elections attracts billions of dollars. “With papal bets, there’s curiosity — but little data or real risk.”
Not everyone finds the trend amusing. Some Catholic leaders and gambling critics have raised concerns about trivializing the papacy and encouraging risky behavior.
The Catechism of the Catholic Church warns that gambling can become morally unacceptable “if it deprives someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others.”
Cardinal Parolin’s long tenure in Vatican diplomacy and frequent contact with cardinals around the world have granted him the front-runner status among many conclave watchers.
Reportedly known for his quiet competence, the Italian cardinal has often served as the Vatican’s damage-control specialist, smoothing tensions after edgy papal remarks.
When Francis angered allies of Ukraine by suggesting the country consider a “white flag,” Cardinal Parolin quelled outrage behind closed doors, explaining that the pope meant negotiations rather than surrender. He also handled fallout from papal comments on Gaza and met with diplomats to maintain Vatican neutrality.
Still, he was the reported architect of the 2018 Vatican-China deal on bishop appointments and was criticized by some as appeasing the Communist Party.
Meanwhile, inside the Sistine Chapel, 133 cardinals under age 80 are gathered in secret to cast their first ballots.
If no one receives the required two-thirds majority (89 votes), the ballots are burned with a chemical that produces black smoke. Voting resumes, up to four times a day.
Once a cardinal secures the majority and accepts the election, white smoke signals the decision.
Soon after, the senior cardinal deacon steps onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and proclaims, “Habemus papam”: “We have a pope.” The new pontiff will then appear to give his first blessing, “Urbi et orbi”: “To the city and to the world.”
