Republicans have seen plenty of good news during the first year of Trump’s second term, and the headlines show Democrats are concerned:
Democrats Alarmed Over Data Showing Voters Fleeing to GOP
Why Democrat Analysts Warn the Party Could Face ‘Deep Trouble’
Dare one utter the “R” word? PJ Media’s intrepid Scott Pinsker, citing a New York Times article about the Dems’ registration crisis, does, “America is still undergoing a massive political realignment. Where we are in 2025 isn’t where we’ll be in Nov. of 2028. Politics is a game of trajectory — and right now, the Republican Party has all the momentum.”
Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine, talking to Megyn Kelly about that same NYT article, warns, “Democrats thought that the Obama coalition—they used to call it the ‘coalition of the ascendant’—and it turns out it’s the ‘descendant.'” He goes on to explain that his party is completely disconnected from voters culturally but that Dem leaders fear they’ll be canceled if they talk about voters reaching their “woke breaking point.”
So what’s the answer? Find another Obama, of course!
In his ranking of the “10 Democrats Who Could Win in 2028,” Ben Shapiro says that’s what many Dems are hoping for with “George Clooney’s guy,” Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
And buzz—he’s at like a 7, which is kind of amazing since he hasn’t really done anything. But people are trying to see him as an Obama nouveau, so I can see a world where that buzz continues to climb.
Dems tried this Obama makeover strategy with Kamala Harris during the 2024 campaign, and it worked to a degree for as long as Harris was able to dodge interviews. (Shapiro gives Harris a goose egg for her current buzz score, and she comes in fourth from the bottom in his 2028 ranking.) Could a more talented politician like Moore—Shapiro says he has a soft “affect in the way that he approaches issues”—become the “next Obama”?
As it stands now, Moore is in second place in Shapiro’s ranking, largely because he was outscored on the diversity scale by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: “She’s a woman of color; that’s a very high barrier for anyone to pass.” Shapiro thinks AOC has a high ceiling when it comes to fundraising because of the way she’s tried to moderate herself.
There are some bigger Democrats who think this because she’s done a really good job at sort of moderating herself publicly in some weird ways. Suddenly she’s gone from being some sort of Jasmine Crockett loudmouth of the House to being strangely seen as quasi-moderate.
Someone who hasn’t made any effort to appear more moderate is Bernie Sanders. Shapiro gives the Vermont senator a 5 out of 10 for electability because “he’s gotten more electable as his left-wing base becomes more left-wing.” Sanders doesn’t lose any points for being Jewish, thanks to his strong opposition to Israel.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro isn’t so lucky. Likely passed over as Harris’s running mate because of his religion, he actually received a negative score on the diversity scale:
As it turns out, JB Pritzker — also Jewish, but nobody cares about that because he is not pro-Israel in any way, shape or form. Josh Shapiro is perceived as too Jewish, so negative 3 for him.
Gavin Newsom, another white male but not Jewish, scores three points higher than Gov. Shapiro for a score of 0 on the diversity scale, but gets a surprising 8 on electability. “I think for gullible Democrats he is posing as the anti-authoritarian Trump figure in a pretty plausible way,” Shapiro says.
The governor of California has the buzz right now because he’s fighting Trump on immigration and redistricting, but Shapiro isn’t sure it will last.
Here’s Shapiro’s final ranking from lowest to highest:
JB Pritzker, Cory Booker (tied)
Josh Shapiro
Kamala Harris
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Bernie Sanders
Gavin Newsom
Wes Moore
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Did he miss anyone? What would your list look like? Share your thoughts in the comment section. (Shapiro will reveal his GOP ranking for 2028 next week—feel free to take a crack at that in the comments as well.)
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