The left-leaning Axios admitted Wednesday that it is so far, so good for President Donald Trump’s economy, despite the dire predictions regarding his tariff policy.
In an article titled “Why everything’s coming up Trump on the economy,” Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin wrote, “Economic, market, and policy developments have been a wind at the president’s back in the last two months. The threatened downsides of an erratic policy process have not materialized, and economic naysayers — for the moment, at least — look silly.”
“Why is President Trump escalating a trade war that had seemed dormant, threatening high tariffs on major trading partners, imported copper, and pharmaceuticals? A better question is ‘why not’?” he asked.
“Three months ago, stock and bond markets were in freefall, forecasters issued recession predictions, retailers warned of empty store shelves, and the outlook for Republicans’ signature tax legislation was decidedly choppy. None of that is true today,” Irwin noted.
He also pointed out that the unemployment rate at 4.1 percent is lower than it was in April, the stock market sits near record highs, and inflation remains essentially the same.
Further, Congress passed the “Big Beautiful Bill” last week, and Trump signed it into law on the Fourth of July.
Irwin hedged his report a bit, writing, “The U.S. economy is a big, complex beast. It will take time for companies to adapt their pricing and supply chains to the kinds of massive shifts in trade policy seen so far in 2025 — and promised in the weeks ahead.”
Inflation during Trump’s 2nd term is an annualized 1.4%, which is less than the ’09-’20 average of 1.8% and less than half the 3.1% annualized rate during Biden’s last 30 months – to say nothing of the 8.6% rate during Biden’s first 18 months… pic.twitter.com/bAZNJ2K55c
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) June 11, 2025
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CNBC reported on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve’s inflation expectations have also come back down from the forecasts made following Trump’s tariff announcement in April.
“The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that respondents in June saw inflation at 3% 12 months from now. That’s the same level it was in January — before Trump took office and began saber-rattling over trade,” CNBC said.
“The level marked a 0.2 percentage point decline from May and a retreat from the 3.6% peak hit in March and April,” the outlet added.
“Thus far, tariffs have yet to show up in most inflation readings,” CNBC further acknowledged.
White House Senior Counsel for Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro explained to Fox Business on Wednesday why Trump’s tariffs have not shown up in the inflation numbers.
“I think the key thing here, and why [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay Powell is so wrong about not lowering [interest] rates, is to recognize the enormous ability of the world to absorb the tariffs,” he said.
“It’s like Navarro’s law: the bigger the screw job we’re getting from any given country, the more that country is able to absorb the tariffs. The more they cheat us, the more they can absorb the tariffs,” the White House official asserted.
He concluded, “And that’s what we’re seeing. We’re seeing the tariffs from countries around the world, and we’re not seeing any inflation, because basically, they’re eating the tariffs.”
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