I feel like Politico has just discovered something that conservatives have been openly worrying about for more than a year and especially in the past two months after the murder of Charlie Kirk.
Most Americans expect political violence to keep growing in the United States and believe that it is likely a political candidate will be assassinated in the next few years.
Widespread pessimism about political violence is a rare, grim point of consensus in a country riven by political and cultural divisions.
A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.
Surprisingly, Harris voters were more likely (61%) to say political violence was likely to increase than Trump voters (50%). That may have more to do with Democrats’ tendency to catastrophize everything than reality. But both parties expect to see a political assassination in the near future.
While political violence can take many forms, more than half of Americans say that it is very or somewhat likely that a political candidate gets assassinated in the next five years, according to the exclusive survey. That view cuts across party lines, with agreement from 51 percent of last year’s Trump voters and 53 percent of Americans who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
But the worst part of this poll is the number of Americans who now suggest political violence may be justified.
Perhaps most troubling, a significant minority of the population — 24 percent — believes that there are some instances where violence is justified.
There was little partisan divide in that belief, but a strong generational one: Younger Americans were significantly more likely than older ones to say violence can be justified. More than one in three Americans under the age of 45 agreed with that belief.
University of Chicago political science professor Robert Pape told Politico a violent age was upon us. “We’re not on the brink of it, we’re firmly in the grip of it.” he said.
I’d like to see a more detailed breakdown of the polling but Politico only offers one chart and it doesn’t cover the question about who is mostly likely to believe political violence is justified. One third of those under age 45 seems really high. My guess, and that’s all it is, is that this is mostly coming from 20-somethings. They are usually the cohort most likely to do something dumb in the name of politics.
The Independent notes that other recent polls show the same trend.
The results are similar to an October NPR / PBS News / Marist poll, which found that 28 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans thought political violence might be necessary to “get the country back on track.”
Between the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol and the 2024 election, there were at least 300 cases of political violence, a 2024 Reuters analysis found, the largest surge in such attacks since the 1970s.
A Pew poll from last month was very similar:
Across the country – and across the political spectrum – Americans see politically motivated violence as on the rise in the United States…
85% say politically motivated violence is increasing. This includes nearly identical shares of Republicans and Republican leaners (86%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (85%)…
77% of Republicans say left-wing extremism is a major problem in the country. Far fewer (27%) say this about right-wing extremism.
Democrats’ views are nearly the reverse: 76% say right-wing extremism is a major problem, while 32% say left-wing extremism is a major problem.
Everyone is on edge and both sides are blaming the other’s extremists. The recent trend shows an increase in attacks from the left but more than a quarter of Democrats blame the political violence on Trump.
28% of Democrats specifically mention the rhetoric or behavior of Trump, the MAGA movement or conservatives as a reason for recent politically motivated violence.
I wonder how many of these people still believe that Charlie Kirk was killed by someone on the far right. The left really pushed that lie into existence and none of the people involved ever apologized.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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