There’s an episode of The Simpsons from the third season where the character Sideshow Bob marries Bart’s Aunt Selma to kill her. When his scheme falls apart and he’s hauled back to jail, he shouts, “I’ll be back. You can’t keep the Democrats out of the White House forever, and when they get in, I’m back on the streets with all my criminal buddies.”
I thought about that line today when I read that under Trump’s second term, the United States is on track for the most significant single-year drop in murders ever recorded.
According to Asher’s Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.
Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in “modern history,” crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.
Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.
RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released.
RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.
The Department of Homeland Security isn’t shy about taking credit.
Here at DHS we’ve been operating by this radical idea that removing murderers from our country would bring down the murder rate.
Who could have guessed it would work? https://t.co/SRbnLhSiQm
— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) December 24, 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino also weighed in, “This is what happens when you mix a President with a vision of safer streets, with a team dedicated to implementing the vision,” he said. “Talk is cheap, results matter.”
Asher acknowledged earlier this fall that crime statistics remain fluid, national estimates are frequently revised, and final “official” figures sometimes take years to lock in. That said, he believes the data now point overwhelmingly in one direction. When the FBI finalizes its 2025 numbers, the agency will likely land on the lowest murder rate in American history, possibly slipping past the benchmark set in 2014.
The plunge in murders is also part of a broader drop in violent crime.
RTCI data show other major categories falling nationwide, including motor vehicle theft, robbery, and aggravated assault, suggesting the decline isn’t limited to one region or one type of community.
Major cities are seeing some of the sharpest improvements.
Axios highlighted drops of nearly 20% in murders in New York City and Memphis, close to 28% in Chicago, and significant declines in Los Angeles County.
There are outliers, with a handful of jurisdictions reporting dramatic percentage spikes — a reminder that smaller agencies can see volatile swings from year to year.
This is why that old Sideshow Bob line still lands. The joke worked because it captured a truth about politics and public safety that keeps repeating itself. That episode aired in April 1992, and it still rings true today. President Trump is back in the White House, and crime is going down. That’s not a coincidence. Trump has made fighting crime a priority of his new administration. Joe Biden spent his presidency doing the opposite, with predictable results.
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