Back in August, I wrote a piece about Ben Shapiro’s ranking of the top Democratic contenders for the 2028 presidential nomination. His top four was heavy on the progressive and light on the (supposedly) moderate: 4. Bernie Sanders 3. Gavin Newsom 2. Wes Moore 1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In his most recent analysis of the field, about a month ago, he doubled down on the likelihood of an AOC candidacy, and his words don’t seem so crazy when you consider the results of the New York City mayoral election:
Well, what if there were, like, a female Zohran Mamdani, who also did not suffer growing up, but can try to claim some sort of victimhood status based off her diverse ethnicity and the fact that she is, in fact, virulently popular with progressives and so has driven an enormous amount of conservative ire because she is actually quite horrible? What if that person existed, and that person were called AOC? I’m just telling you: everyone on the right and left who is short selling AOC—wrong move.
If many people are indeed short selling AOC, just as many have been going long on California Gov. Gavin Newsom. That includes political analyst Mark Halperin, who this week came out with his own list of top Democratic contenders for the 2028 nomination. AOC is nowhere to be found on the list, which is topped by the guy who, as PJ Media Catherine Salgado writes, has turned “California into one of the most unlivable states in the union.” Halperin explained his main reasons for naming Newsom the frontrunner:
What’s his greatest known strength? The momentum he’s built this year. 2025 saw Gavin Newsom raising money, adding people to his fundraising lists—vitally important to raise money—and then winning the redistricting fight. Being treated by a lot of people in the media and the Democratic Party like a shadow president: huge advantage for him in the momentum he has.
It’s remarkable that we’re talking about momentum for a governor who faced a recall election even before his inept leadership during this year’s wildfires. While the left-wing media may be excited by his slickly produced ads and “cringe” podcast interviews, others aren’t buying his forced authenticity. As Halperin admits, “Many Americans in both parties and independents think he’s a total phony.” A guest on Halperin’s 2Way podcast said the governor “looks like a greasy politician out of central casting” in his new book ad. Ben Shapiro isn’t as kind:
If you think that this lizard-human is going to…he’s a white lizard-human. It ain’t going nowhere. This guy ain’t going nowhere. … It’s not gonna be him. Gavin is so white, he’s transparent. It won’t be him either.
Even though Kamala Harris isn’t white, Shapiro also doesn’t think she’s going anywhere. Halperin, however, includes her at number 4. Based on her recent New York Times interview and calls he’s made, Halperin thinks she’s serious about running again:
She sees the field—not necessarily as particularly strong. She sees the experience she has. Known strength: she’s got a national profile. Former Vice President. Democratic nominee. And she’s got—I think this is an undervalued asset even though people know about it. She’s got strong ties to the core constituencies of the party: to black voters, to female voters, to labor.
Someone who doesn’t have strong ties to black voters is Pete Buttigieg, yet Halperin ranks him number 3 on the list. Why? Primarily because of his speaking ability: “He can talk the owls down from the trees.”
Number 2 on Halperin’s list, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, also speaks well — and, as Democratic strategist Nomiki Konst admits, talks a lot like Barack Obama, maybe “a little too much” like Barack Obama.
Related: Ben Shapiro’s Take on 2028 Democratic Contenders — How Would You Rank the Field?
Halperin thinks Shapiro’s secret strength is his support from the Democratic Party: “Nancy Pelosi likes him. That still matters. The Obamas like him. Clintons like him. Lots of the best strategists in the party even if they’re not working for him – they really like him.” Of course the progressives in the party who hate Israel really don’t like a Jewish governor who is supportive of the Jewish state. “Lots of progressives don’t trust him,” Halperin says. Even though Halperin believes that this “anti-establishment, progressive wing of the party is going to have a lot of strength,” he still puts AOC at number 8 on the list.
Why does Halperin see things so differently from Shapiro?
Perhaps because Shapiro thinks that, while “woke is in remission, it is not yet dead.” His final warning: “As the Democratic Party moves in the direction of pseudo-victimhood of AOC and Zohram Mamdani, if the Democratic Party decides to smear that woke victimhood mentality over a Marxist-pro-jihadist philosophy, bad things ahead for the United States of America. That is for sure.”
Whose list do you think is more accurate? And what would your own list of the most likely 2008 nominees look like?
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