To paraphrase Winston the Wolf from Pulp Fiction, let’s not start shaking each other’s hands quite yet. American presidents since Harry Truman have tried to establish Middle East peace as their legacy. We could stretch that back another half-century if we include British and French leaders, for that matter. That even includes Donald Trump, who maybe came closer with the Abraham Accords than anyone since Bill Clinton.
By the time Trump returned to office, Israel was in the middle of fighting a war started by Hamas and joined by Hezbollah and Iran. However, Trump has built enough momentum settling a half-dozen other conflicts — as well as helping Israel take Iran out of the war — that his influence in the region has hit a new zenith. Axios’ Barak Ravid reported earlier today that Trump may leverage that into a spectacular advance toward a real peace in the region, one that will further isolate Iran’s proxies and end their hegemonic ambitions for good:
While the Trump administration has failed so far to end the war in Gaza, it has found slow but steady success in two other war-ravaged Middle Eastern countries.
Why it matters: The administration’s diplomatic efforts in Syria and Lebanon have generated scant attention in Washington and in the news cycle. But they hold the potential for truly historic developments. …
- Three weeks ago, the Lebanese government launched a process to address the key U.S. demand: disarming Hezbollah.
- For now, the Cabinet has only asked the military to draft a plan to disarm militant groups. But even that was unprecedented in a country where Hezbollah has been a leading military and political force for decades.
The latest: Barrack and U.S. diplomat Morgan Ortagus are now asking the Israeli government to reciprocate by scaling down its strikes in Lebanon, and starting a gradual withdrawal of its remaining forces from southern Lebanon.
Those efforts appear to be producing fruit in both countries, to varying degrees in both countries. New Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa acknowledged earlier today that discussions with Israel, facilitated by Trump envoy Thomas Barrack, had reached an “advanced” stage for a bilateral security agreement with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government:
Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa later confirmed to Arab journalists that his government was in “advanced” talks with Israel on a security agreement, according to Sky News Arabic, which quoted him as saying that any deal would be be based on the 1974 disengagement lines that Jerusalem and Damascus agreed to after the Yom Kippur War a year earlier.
Sharaa also reportedly said that while he did not believe the time was right for a peace deal with Israel, he “will not hesitate to take” any agreement that benefits Syria and the region.
The news from Lebanon is more murky. The government has tried to demand full disarmament from Hezbollah as well as their withdrawal from the sub-Litani and Bekaa Valley regions. Hezbollah refused to comply earlier today, insisting that they had complied with the cease-fire agreement and demanding that Israel withdraw completely:
Senior Hezbollah official Mahmoud Komati on Monday rejected the Israeli proposal, telling Reuters that the group opposed “any direct cooperation with the Zionist enemy or collusion against Lebanon’s people and its resistance”.
He said Lebanon had fulfilled its obligations under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, intended to end a war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, while Israel continued to defy the accord and seek “unacceptable new gains”.
Komati urged the Lebanese government to uphold the national consensus, dismissing what he called U.S. and Israeli “tricks and games”.
Meanwhile, in a recorded televised speech aired on Monday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said the Lebanese government must ensure Israel complied with a November 27 ceasefire agreement before talks on a national defence strategy can take place, reaffirming his group’s longstanding refusal to disarm.
In response, Netanyahu declared his readiness to support the Lebanese government in Beirut in ensuring the disarmament of Hezbollah. He offered a phased approach on both sides as a middle ground in an attempt to leave Hezbollah on the margins:
Israel is “ready to support” Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah and will implement a phased reduction of its military presence in Lebanon as a “reciprocal measure,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement on Monday.
If the Lebanese Armed Forces “take the necessary steps to implement the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will engage in reciprocal measures, including a phased reduction of IDF presence in coordination with the US-led security mechanism,” the statement reads.
“Israel stands ready to support Lebanon in its efforts to disarm Hezbollah and to work together towards a more secure and stable future for both nations,” it continued.
Clearly, we are seeing movement in both countries toward some sort of normalization. The progress in Syria is only possible because al-Sharaa successfully forced Hezbollah to withdraw, mainly to Lebanon, and then cut off their lines of communication with Iran. If al-Sharaa reaches a security agreement with Israel, that will almost certainly focus on joint opposition to Iran and its proxies, especially Hezbollah, which is only a shadow of its former strength, financially as well as militarily. That’s not to say they are entirely toothless, but a Syria-Israel security arrangement would put an end to whatever military ambitions they may have left.
However, Hezbollah still has strength in Lebanon, politically if not militarily. The US has to keep pressure on Beirut to establish a monopoly on military power in Lebanon if they want the Lebanese government to knit itself into the Abraham Accords. Right now, Barrack is pressing Israel into the phased withdrawal suggested by Netanyahu, but unless that comes with verifiable disarmament, Israel will eventually have to fight its way back to these positions, and Netanyahu knows it.
Nevertheless, the momentum toward the ‘strong horse’ in the region is still picking up steam. Perhaps Trump will find a way to achieve what his predecessors could not over the last 80 years. At this point, after the head-spinning achievements of the first seven months, I would not advise betting against Trump.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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