Trump tariffs generate billions in revenue as inflation holds steady: What to know

Trump tariffs are fattening federal coffers while prices rose just 0.2% in July, showing tariffs haven’t had a major impact on inflation so far. Here’s what you need to know about the tariff revenue surge and steady inflation data:

The revenue surge

Bipartisan budget group reports massive tariff income increase:

• Committee for a Responsible Budget reported monthly tariff revenue in July jumped to $25 billion
• Up from $7 billion a year ago according to bipartisan group
• Group has criticized Trump administration and successors for not addressing national deficits
• By end of Trump’s term, new tariffs will bring in about $1.3 trillion “before accounting for economic effects”

The July inflation report

Consumer Price Index shows minimal price increases:

• Prices rose 0.2% in July according to Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% on yearly basis
• Matches level for 12 months ending in June
• Sign that tariffs haven’t had major impact on inflation so far

The budget analysis caveats

Committee acknowledges limitations in tariff projections:

• “Estimates are very rough and intended to reflect the general magnitude of the policies”
• “Rather than precise scores, given the complexity of the tariffs and their impacts”
• “Estimates also exclude macroeconomic effects”
• Effects “could reduce the net deficit reduction from tariffs” if they lead to slower growth

The deficit impact

Revenue won’t offset Trump’s spending increases:

• Additional tariff revenue won’t offset trillions from Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill
• Bill extended tax cuts, increased border and military spending
• Established new Medicaid eligibility requirements
• Expected to add trillions to national debt

The tariff escalation

Trump implements highest levies in over century:

• Last week imposed tariffs ranging between 15% and 41% on more than 67 countries
• Raised levies to highest levels in over a century
• Solidified 10% blanket tariff on all imports
• Implementing 15% rate negotiated with European Union, Japan, South Korea

The historical context

Tariff revenue growth spans multiple presidential terms:

• Before Trump’s first term, U.S. tariffs generated about $3 billion per month
• Grew to $7 billion after Trump raised tariffs during first term
• Included tariffs on Chinese goods, steel and aluminum
• Current levels represent dramatic escalation from historical norms

Trump’s tariff defense

President emphasizes revenue and strategic benefits:

• “The tariffs have helped” Trump told reporters Monday at White House
• “It’s given us not only the money, it’s billions, trillions of dollars of money”
• “But it gives us great power over enemies”
• Tariff hikes “likely to meaningfully reduce deficits if allowed to remain in effect”

The inflation breakdown

Rising shelter prices drove July increase:

• Rising shelter prices were main factor in July increase
• Food index remained unchanged and gasoline prices fell
• Medical care, airline fares, recreation and home furnishings saw slight increases
• Core inflation rose 0.3% for month and 3.1% year-over-year

The core inflation concern

First time since February exceeding 3% annually:

• Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices
• First time since February growing more than 3% yearly basis
• Some economists see sign companies starting to pass tariff costs to consumers
• Congressional critics point to rising consumer costs

The Democratic criticism

Elizabeth Warren attacks Trump’s economic policies:

• “President Trump promised to lower costs on ’day one’”
• “Instead, his failed economic policies continue to drive up prices for Americans”
• Sen. Warren is Massachusetts Democrat and ranking Banking Committee member
• Uses inflation data to criticize Trump’s tariff approach

The BLS leadership change

Trump fires bureau head over job numbers dispute:

• July CPI first major BLS report since Trump fired leader Erika McEntarfer
• Fired over disappointing job numbers Trump called rigged
• Critics said move would undermine trust in supposedly independent bureau
• Bureau should be “guided by facts” according to critics

The Heritage Foundation nominee

Trump nominates conservative economist to lead bureau:

• Trump nominating E.J. Antoni, Heritage Foundation economist
• Antoni has criticized BLS methodology
• “Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE”
• “I know E.J. Antoni will do an incredible job in this new role”

The Federal Reserve pressure

Trump continues attacking Powell over interest rates:

• Trendline will weigh on Fed officials meeting in September on interest rates
• Trump wants central bank to cut rates, but Jerome Powell has resisted
• “The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable”
• “Fortunately, the economy is sooo good that we’ve blown through Powell”

The Fed building lawsuit

Trump threatens legal action over renovation costs:

• Trump “considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed”
• Citing “horrible, and grossly incompetent, job” managing Fed construction
• “Three Billion Dollars for a job that should have been a $50 Million Dollar fix up”
• Uses building costs to pressure Fed chairman

The industry concerns

Retailers warn about tariff cost absorption:

• Major price increases from tariffs could take several weeks to appear
• National Retail Federation and footwear lobbies urged moderation
• Say companies would find it difficult to absorb costs
• Trump recently implemented his most ambitious tariff plans

The economic outlook

Inflation remains mild despite earlier predictions:

• Inflation “remains mild compared to doomsday predictions earlier in the year”
• Emboldening Trump to pursue aggressive trade agenda
• Includes blanket 10% tariff on all imports
• Heftier levies on dozens of trading partners

Read more:

• Bipartisan analysis shows Trump tariffs generated billions in new revenue

• Inflation holds steady as Trump ramps up new tariffs