The narrative that Donald Trump’s base of MAGA supporters is beginning to abandon the president because of the Epstein files isn’t reflected in the reality of the polls.
A July 16-18 CBS News/YouGov poll found that 89% of Republicans said they approved of Trump’s overall job as president. The survey was conducted after Attorney General Pam Bondi’s announcement that no more Epstein files would be released.
A recent survey by AtlasIntel revealed that Republican respondents generally favored Trump’s position on the Epstein issue. Roughly 66% of respondents reported that the controversy would not heavily influence their votes in next year’s midterms. Also, 57% of Republicans don’t think the Epstein case should be investigated any further, while just 29% believe it should.
While online personalities and influencers threaten MAGA Armageddon if the client list, which everyone just KNOWS exists, isn’t released, most Republicans are unconcerned.
Meanwhile, the Democratic media have grabbed on to this story and are not letting go. This is the story that will finally bring Trump down, they’re saying. Except Trump’s approval numbers actually went up last week.
It’s true that Trump has been bleeding support from the relentless drumbeat of stories about “heartless” deportations and poor people losing Medicaid coverage. These stories were affecting the views of independent voters long before the Epstein controversy began. About 68 percent of independents said they disapproved of Trump’s overall job performance, while 32 percent approved, according to the CBS News survey.
The Epstein controversy is a different story, but not necessarily all bad.
About the coming midterm elections, 50 percent of independents said the Epstein saga would be a “very important” factor with a further 9 percent saying it would be “important,” the AtlasIntel poll found. About 41 percent said it would not be important. And an eye-catching 83 percent of this key voting bloc told the AtlasIntel pollsters that Trump’s relationship with Epstein needed further investigation, while just about 8 percent said it has been “sufficiently” examined already.
Anthony Salvanto, the executive director of elections and surveys at CBS News, described Trump’s support among his Republican base this way on “Face the Nation” on Sunday: “Very, very strongly behind him and especially on this immigration issue — and especially on deportation.”
“What you see in this dynamic is increasingly a base that really likes what it sees and everybody else with growing doubts,” Salvanto said.
Midterm elections are all about partisan turnout. With Trump’s MAGA base enthused about his job performance, it seems likely that at this point, he and the Republicans have very little to worry about.
Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger thinks that the files will never be released because their contents would destroy Trump.
“If they do come out, they’ll likely reveal just how close Trump was to Epstein,” Kinzinger wrote on Substack. He was referring to files from Epstein’s criminal case. “In a normal era, a scandal like this would drive a president to resign. Trump won’t. He’ll hide behind the office and pretend nothing happened. But the damage is done. The polls will get worse.”
Kinzinger can’t know what’s in the files, so his statement is pure anti-Trump balderdash. His “analysis” that the polls will get “worse” is even more idiotic. If he doesn’t know what’s in the files, how can he predict the polls will get worse?
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I don’t think the public at large cares what’s in the files, and it will not change their opinion of Donald Trump anyway. The voting public made up their minds about Trump years ago, and there’s not going to be anything in those documents to change many people’s opinions of the president.
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