Nuking the tabs …
Reaffirming the will of the Iranian people: freedom and victory in the battle of destiny against religious fascism
The proposal for a ceasefire and ending the war is a step forward for the third option: neither war nor appeasement. Let the people of Iran themselves, in the battle of destiny, bring down Khamenei and the dictatorship of velayat-e faqih.
The people of Iran, in their century-long struggle, at tremendous and bloody cost, have repeatedly rejected the dictatorships of both Shah and Sheikh through successive uprisings.
I repeat that we seek a democratic, non-nuclear republic, with the separation of religion and state, gender equality, and also autonomy for Iran’s nationalities. This will bring peace, democracy, human rights, stability, reconstruction, friendship, cooperation, and economic development to the region and the world.
Secretariat of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)
Ed: This statement was sent to me by the NCRI this evening, authored by Mrs. Maryam Rajavi. The question will be whether the people will choose to rise up now, and what form the alternative will take. Pray for the courage and wisdom of the Iranian people and success in their quest for liberty from this evil regime.
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SECRETARY RUBIO: You don’t – I mean, you don’t know what you’re talking about. And the people who say that – it doesn’t matter if the order was given. They have everything they need to build nuclear weapons. Why would you bury – why would you bury things in a mountain 300 feet under the ground?
Ed: Margaret Brennan should have just interviewed herself. Rubio tried to explain that it didn’t matter whether Khamenei had “ordered weaponization”; he has approved the enrichment to the point where weaponization could be rapidly achieved, which was a clear and present threat to the region. If Brennan wants to offer both the question and the answer, CBS News can dispense with booking guests for her increasingly irrelevant programs.
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“There is no reason for us, or for me personally, to criticize what Israel started a week ago, nor is there any reason to criticize what America did last weekend,” Merz said at an event organized by the BDI German industrial lobby group. …
“The evidence that Iran is continuing on its path to building a nuclear weapon can no longer be seriously disputed,” he said.
Ed: Except by Margaret Brennan, apparently.
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Google Maps Detour: Road closed.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Headquarters in Tehran is undergoing renovations. 🚧TY for your understanding. 🇮🇱 pic.twitter.com/KQ76lQ17GC
— Ron M. (@Jewtastic) June 23, 2025
Ed: Israel has not minced words about regime change. The cease fire will prevent any more direct action to achieve that, but the final strikes of this war will make it easier for the Iranians to make it happen for themselves.
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The 2001 AUMF specifically authorized the use of force against “nations” who aided the 9/11 attacks “IN ORDER TO PREVENT ANY FUTURE ACTS of international terrorism against the United States by such nations…”
The “Whereas” clauses specifically reference the President having the authority from Congress under the Constitution to take action to deter and prevent acts of international terrorism against the United States.
It is no great chore to string together a line of culpable actors — individuals, organizations, and states — who played a role in the 9/11 attack that includes Iran and the IRGC. While the language of the AUMF refers to the planning, authorizing, committing, and aiding the attacks themselves, the language actually goes further — it covers nations that “harbored … organizations or persons.” Such language is not focused only on past activities. It contemplated actions taken on behalf of those organizations and persons in the future.
Ed: I saw arguments popping up this weekend that the AUMF after 9/11 covers Trump’s actions on Saturday. Shipwreckedcrew gives a detailed defense of this position, and even though I think the inherent Article II authority is sufficient, this is a pretty convincing essay, too.
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Reuters: Senior Iran official: “Iran has the necessary rationality to begin diplomacy, after punishing the aggressor.” https://t.co/m7676J0Vb8
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
Ed: Oh yes, we were very ‘punished’ by the performative light show today. But this is what the regime has left — a face-saving, preplanned exchange with Qatar and others, then a call for talks to save Khamenei’s hide while it still can be saved. And the rapidity of Iran’s agreement to a ceasefire makes it clear that they know it.
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Three months before the 2020 U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani, Rashid recounts, the legendary Quds Force commander laid out his life’s work. “I have assembled for you six armies outside Iran and I have created a corridor 1,500 kilometers long and 1,000 kilometers wide, all the way to the shores of the Mediterranean,” Soleimani told Iran’s army chiefs. “Any enemy that decides to fight against the Islamic Revolution, and against the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran, will have to go through these six armies. It won’t be able to do so.”
Yet Israel did. Rather than circumvent Soleimani’s strategy, Jerusalem has fought Tehran on its own terms. Of Soleimani’s six armies, only the Houthis and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units have escaped. After the Oct. 7 massacre, Israel fought through Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, wiping out their leadership and slicing up their missile arsenals, leaving the Assad regime in Syria to crumble without support.
Suddenly, Iran didn’t look so menacing.
Ed: The frame of this essay is that Netanyahu has been vindicated. The last two years finally allowed Netanyahu the opportunity to defeat Israel’s true enemy rather than fight proxies on Iran’s terms. And that will explain why Israel will continue to rain destruction on Iran as a lesson to any other country that thinks they can execute those plans better than the mullahs did.
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We’re on it!
Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, America’s energy security is stronger than ever before 🇺🇸 https://t.co/ev0APQTkxu
— Secretary Chris Wright (@SecretaryWright) June 23, 2025
Ed: It might take a while for increased production of American crude to hit the markets. However, these markets operate on futures as well as spot sales. If more product will hit the market in the near future, that might be enough to moderate any price increases from the current conflict, including any action in the Strait of Hormuz, if the ceasefire doesn’t hold.
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I spent the weekend talking and texting with policymakers and analysts in Washington to understand what may come next. Perhaps the most intriguing perspective I gleaned was that the U.S. action might actually grant China greater leverage in its broader negotiations with Trump — not less — over trade and nearly everything else.
“The U.S.’s call for China to counsel Iran to not close the Strait of Hormuz adds to the list of things Washington needs from Beijing, the others being its rare earth exports, cracking down on the fentanyl trade, and reducing its trade surplus,” Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told me. “As a result, China’s potential leverage grows and the costs to the U.S. from escalating in any domain against China grows.”
Ed: Yeah, well, maybe … but the US doesn’t need China to keep Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. China needs the US to keep it open. And the US Navy has all the firepower it needs to force it open if Iran makes the suicidal mistake of attempting to choke off trade through the strait. China wants to avoid that outcome, which means the onus is firmly on them to convince Iran to stand down. Is that what happened today, or did the Iranians finally realized that they have no friends left?
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In retrospect the @POTUS decision in his first term to take out Soleimani may be one of the most consequential acts in modern history. I have to imagine from October 8, 2023 to today, much would have played out differently if Soleimani had remained in charge.
— Kyle Shideler (@ShidelerK) June 23, 2025
Ed: It’s a counterfactual worth considering. But I’m not really sure that Soleimani would have proven any more competent than Qaani did over the last two years.
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We’ve had “Middle East experts” for years. Their track record, as the above suggests, has been poor. Our universities have departments of “Middle East Studies,” who have mostly pumped out poorly informed activists, and horrible takes by risible faculty members. Their existence has revolved around the Arab-Israeli conflict, which is in the process of disappearing as the Arab nations have all reached accommodations with Israel, and as the Palestinians suffer humiliating defeat, and the loss of their last major patron, Iran, which will be in no position to help them financially or militarily any time soon, if ever.
Well, an establishment that is organized around a problem is unlikely to go about actually solving that problem: What will its high-paid people, in prestigious jobs, do if that happens?
As it turns out, the solutions were always pretty simple, it just took someone from outside the field to find them. Trump brought Arabs and Israelis together under the Abraham Accords in his first term; now he’s bringing Iran to heel in his second. In both cases it took a willingness to be hard-nosed, and to say and do things that were anathema before because they would have interfered with big donations from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc.
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Ed: I get the final Final Word, because RHIP …
.@EdMorrissey, managing editor of @hotairblog. joined @AmyJacobson and @JimIuorio to discuss the fallout from recent U.S. military action targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, potential retaliation risks, and the broader implications for American national security and… pic.twitter.com/DejUrBEwS2
— Morning Answer (@MorningAnswer) June 23, 2025
