Nobel Peace Prize, anyone? If this actually holds up, it’d be tough to argue against it.
Not long after Ali Khamenei insisted that the Iranians would never surrender under fire, it certainly looks like they just did:
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
So far, we haven’t seen anything from either country officially adopting the ceasefire, so keep that in mind.
Let’s assume Trump got this agreement from both parties. This came about a few hours after Iran put on a staged light show over Qatar, which clearly intended to give Khamenei a face-saving exit from an existential threat from Trump and the US military. It came less than two days after the US destroyed at least part of Iran’s nuclear-weapons development program. And it came an hour after Khamenei tweeted boldly about his courage from the safety of the bunker he apparently hasn’t left in twelve days:
Says the frightened little man hiding in his bunker while asking everyone else to martyr themselves.
cc:@yashar https://t.co/i90JZJDM6m
— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) June 23, 2025
This is what is known as peace through strength. The Israelis understand that, and we used to know it as well. We have relearned it in this administration, and now Iran has little choice but to either concede or watch its regime collapse. And it’s still not clear that a regime collapse won’t happen anyway.
VP J.D. Vance was in the middle of an interview with Bret Baier when Trump made the announcement. Vance made the point that Trump’s decisive action forced the mullahs to retreat, and now the world looks much different than it did two weeks ago, or two years ago:
.@VP reacts to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement announced by President Trump: “The President without … having a single American casualty obliterated the Iranian nuclear program. We are now in a place where we weren’t a week ago.” pic.twitter.com/a5G88FfKuE
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 23, 2025
Vance raises an interesting point. If Iran could still build a nuclear weapon, they would have raced to do it over the last 12 days. The initial attacks of the IDF seems to have prevented it, likely because of their attacks on Isfahan and Natanz, as well as the elimination of their nuclear scientists. The strike on Fordow must have put a stake through the heart of the project, though, because it changed the orientation of the Iranian regime practically overnight. This fast agreement after their silly pas de deux over Qatar today speaks volumes on this point. They no longer have anything to protect — except their own hides.
That’s why Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow today, after trying to get France and Europeans to intercede with the US. That was the last gasp of the mullahs, an attempt to get the Russians to face off against Trump and threaten World War III. Putin isn’t interested in those stakes, and neither is China. The Iranians found out the hard way that they were all alone, and the only man who could stop the bombing was Trump.
Assuming Trump did get the ceasefire, that is. So far the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel are reporting on Trump’s announcement, but don’t have any reports on confirmation from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The Iranians are quiet too, although a couple of their mouthpieces on social media are calling this “fake news.” That’s a measure of how humiliating it will be to have to accept terms from the US to keep Tehran from getting pounded by the Israelis for another night. And despite all of the best propaganda efforts by the regime, everyone will understand exactly who won this war, and what it means for the claims to divine ordination for the Iranian theocracy.
