Iran and Trump can barely agree on what color the sky is, no less what is being discussed or agreed to in negotiations about the end of the Iran war. Each side is telling completely different stories, making dramatically different claims, and can’t even agree on the extent to which the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran or is actually open to free traffic.
But one thing is very clear: the oil is flowing out of the Gulf and onto the world markets, which was the #1 goal that President Trump had when he signed the Memorandum of Understanding with the Iranian regime.
Strait of Hormuz crossings rebound
Kpler’s rolling coverage of US-Iran diplomatic developments shows a clear shift in Strait of Hormuz activity across two consecutive weekends. Between 12–14 June, total crossings reached 32. One week later, from 19–21 June, crossings rose to 93… pic.twitter.com/L03f6wFOx1
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 23, 2026
Strait of Hormuz crossings rebound
Kpler’s rolling coverage of US-Iran diplomatic developments shows a clear shift in Strait of Hormuz activity across two consecutive weekends. Between 12–14 June, total crossings reached 32. One week later, from 19–21 June, crossings rose to 93 an increase of 61 crossings.
The biggest change came on Saturday, with crossings rising from 3 to 42 week-on-week, highlighting a sharp rebound in vessel movement through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.A temporary OFAC general license has become an important enabler of the traffic recovery, easing some of the immediate compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits until 21 August.
Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/gwQf20
We are a long way from the volume of traffic that existed before the war in total shipping, but in terms of oil shipments out of the Gulf, we are nearing record highs. Unsurprisingly, the priority has been getting the tankers out of the Gulf first to satisfy world demand for oil, and one presumes that once the glut of tankers in the Gulf gets reduced, other shipping will soon follow.
That’s the good news, and it is very good indeed. The world needs oil, as global reserves are nearing depletion, and once that happens, oil prices will skyrocket. Preventing a sudden oil shortage would prevent what Trump described as a possible global depression.
As to whose oil is getting out right now, the answer is less clear. There is some indication that the ships are mainly of Iranian origin, meaning that the lifting of the blockade and the “opening” of the Strait to shipping benefits Iran far more than its neighbors, if it turns out that they are the only ones with unimpeded shipping rights.
Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.
Interesting to note here, the initial surge in the beginning of the video are all Iran-linked tankers (on the sanction list).
In the tail-end of the video, there are two ships related to Korea.
HMM DAON (IMO: 9869227): Container Ship… pic.twitter.com/1AnDLG7Opm
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 23, 2026
Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.
Interesting to note here, the initial surge in the beginning of the video are all Iran-linked tankers (on the sanction list).
In the tail-end of the video, there are two ships related to Korea.
HMM DAON (IMO: 9869227): Container Ship
UNIVERSAL GLORY (IMO: 9794824): VLCC
The rest of the ships (at the end) are related to Iran.
Based on today’s movement, it seems that IRGC is still throttling flows but not closing the Strait entirely.
In terms of increasing the supply of oil in the world, it obviously doesn’t matter WHOSE oil gets out of the Gulf. Just as Trump lifted sanctions on Russian oil during the crisis to keep supply higher, allowing Iranian oil onto the market serves his short-term purpose, though at a high cost in terms of exerting pressure on Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal and other issues.
Of course, longer term, it matters quite a bit whether our Gulf allies can export their oil through the Strait. Not only do they produce more than Iran, but keeping the Strait closed to them and open for the Iranians would be the opposite of what we would want. It would help our enemies and harm our friends.
At this early stage, who knows how things will turn out. We are only a few days into the implementation of the MOU; Iran likely has a much higher risk tolerance (and lower risk in general, since they aren’t threatening their own ships), and the greatest incentive to get as much oil onto the market to plug their HUGE budget deficit, with an economy on the brink of collapse.
Reading the tea leaves at this point is useless. Ask me in a week, when flow should be more normal.
We do know that Iran and the United States are presenting what is happening in diametrically opposed ways, with Trump saying one thing, and Iran saying the opposite. Is that simply Iran saying things for domestic consumption while actually making concessions, or is Trump doing his hyperbole thing again? Probably both.
Iranian officials have commented on the issue of nuclear inspectors, and traffic caps on the Strait of Hormuz via state media today. These statements are often for a domestic audience.
It’s important to wait for for verifiable information. International shipping data indicates… pic.twitter.com/2jHzrbtKGt
— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 23, 2026
Iranian officials have commented on the issue of nuclear inspectors, and traffic caps on the Strait of Hormuz via state media today. These statements are often for a domestic audience. It’s important to wait for for verifiable information. International shipping data indicates that millions of barrels of crude oil are exiting the Persian Gulf, and U.S. officials maintain that Iran will allow IAEA inspectors into the country.
President Trump insists that Iran is just putting out propaganda directed at its domestic audience, and that what matters is what is said behind closed doors. Since we have no window into the negotiations other than what the two sides tell us, YMMV when it comes to deciding whether and to what extent either side is presenting a fully accurate view of what is happening behind closed doors. I am a fan of the US and rooting for us to win and win big, but even Trump and company have a domestic audience to play to, so it’s unlikely they are giving us the unvarnished truth either.
We do know for certain that Iran does nothing but lie, so there is that.
Iran is not giving up its claims to sovereignty over the Strait, and it is demanding that any ship transiting the Gulf obtain permission, and it is also indicating that it will limit the number on any given day. Whether they can enforce that is another matter.
Also, Iran and Oman have released a joint statement claiming they have sovereignty over the Strait, and indicating that they are negotiating among themselves what fees they will charge after the MOU expires.
The relevant part of the statement:
They agreed to maintain their dialogue on this issue through a joint working group between the two foreign ministries in order to reach agreement on the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the services that will be provided in this regard and the costs associated with them in accordance with international standards. In this context, they have also agreed to hold discussions with the littoral States in the region, and with any other relevant parties.
All arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz must fully respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights of the two Coastal States of the Strait.
Of course, Oman may just be playing along to keep the negotiations going, and negotiate those “fees” down to zero, so we can’t assume that it has agreed to conspire with Iran to ream everybody else for its own financial benefit and to help its friend Iran.
🦅 President Trump was clear on the future status of the Strait of Hormuz:
“Nobody is going to control it. It’s international waters. Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up.” pic.twitter.com/KUpkfhjVn0
— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) June 23, 2026
The overall situation, in other words, is impossible to discern at this point. All we know for certain is that the oil—somebody’s oil—is gushing out of the Gulf and onto the world market. We don’t even know whether that money is going directly to Iran, to an account controlled by the United States, or to another entity, to be disbursed for the purchase of humanitarian aid. Trump says yes, Iran says yes, and points to the MOU as proof that it has total control over the money.
Many people are skeptical that the US has any say in how the money is spent; Trump says otherwise. Who is right? I don’t know.
Doing that would violate the MOU, which is the entire justification for Iran to remain at the table.
So good luck with that.
This is the corner we chose to paint ourselves into. https://t.co/ABujWkHDx7
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 23, 2026
The price of oil has stabilized around $73 per barrel, and bringing it down as quickly as possible was the original goal. It seems to have worked for the moment, achieving the president’s most pressing goal. Whether he is also on a path to achieving the war aims or not is a matter of dispute.
I have been a skeptic, believing that we are focused exclusively on short-term fixes, but I could easily be wrong.
Let’s all hope so.
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