Should we take this seriously? Literally? With a Lot’s-wife-sized grain of salt?
According to Barak Ravid at Axios, the Iranian regime has more or less caved to Donald Trump’s terms for the 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU). They will sign off on reopening the Strait of Hormuz with no claims over the international waterway and will discuss the surrender of its nuclear-weapons program, in exchange for restoration of its oil exports and desperately needed cash:
U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give his final approval, two U.S. officials and a regional source involved in the mediation efforts tell Axios.
Why it matters: The signing of the MOU would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the war started, but a final agreement that tackles Trump’s nuclear demands would still require further intensive negotiations.
In other words, it’s an agreement to talk more, but while allowing commercial traffic to return to normal. Ravid’s sources tell him that Trump has to approve this form of the MOU, but their description makes it look as though he’s getting everything he wanted in this phase:
The U.S. officials said the 60-day MOU will state that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be “unrestricted.” A U.S. official said this means no tolls and no harassment and that Iran will have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days.
The U.S. naval blockade will also be lifted, but that will happen in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping, a U.S. official said.
The MOU will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon, the officials said. It will also state that the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day window will be how to dispose of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and how to address Iranian enrichment.
The U.S. will commit to discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of the negotiations. The MOU will also include a discussion of a mechanism to help Iran start receiving goods and humanitarian aid.
To recap: The Strait reopens, we don’t release any frozen assets, and the IRGC commits to substantive discussions on the “nuclear dust.” That’s not a final deal, but it’s a step in the right direction, and perhaps more importantly, it’s a step in Trump’s direction. The big question will be whether the regime adheres to the terms, but they don’t get any concessions up front if they don’t. In that sense, it’s the reverse of the JCPOA. Iran has to earn its concessions.
Color me skeptical on this anyway, but let’s game this out. Why would the Iranian regime cave at this time? The Wall Street Journal reports that the blockade has pushed the regime’s survival to the brink:
At the turn of the year, Iran’s regime faced its biggest protests in years as anger spread over spiraling prices and a crumbling economy. Thousands were killed in a vicious crackdown.
Now, battered by war and suffocated by a U.S. naval blockade, the country is in even worse shape as Washington presses Tehran into a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leaving its leaders weighing whether they can withstand the pain long enough to extract more concessions.
Already, the blockade has choked off oil export revenue and raised the risk that Iran will have to shut down wells as it runs out of places to store crude. Iranian officials are urging people to conserve fuel, electricity and water—a sign that the economic squeeze is spreading from oil terminals and factories into daily life. Critical industries have been damaged. More than a million Iranians have been left out of work as the national currency falls to record lows.
Prices of staples such as rice, meat, bread and cheese have risen sharply in recent weeks, adding to the burden on Iranian households and raising the pressure on the government to prevent a repeat of the last wave of street protests. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other pragmatists realize the slide will have to be stemmed if they are to maintain stability, meaning the worsening economic picture is becoming a key pressure point in the negotiations with Washington. “The main war is in the economic field,” Pezeshkian told members of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce Wednesday. “If you fail, the country fails.”
[more to come]
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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