We’re used to hyperbole every election cycle. We hear that this election is the most important election of our lifetimes and that the stakes have never been higher, and sometimes the stakes truly are high.
But once in a while, an election arises that is truly pivotal with game-changing consequences. That’s what we’re seeing in Virginia on April 21, when voters go to the polls to vote yes or no on a referendum that, if it passes, would gerrymander the state’s congressional districts to heavily favor Democrats.
It’s one of the most brazen power grabs from a party that loves it some power grabs. As the maps stand today, Virginia has six Democrats and five Republicans in the House. If the measure passes, elections would likely tilt that balance to 10 Democrats to one Republican.
Polls show a tight race between yes and no. Geoffrey Skelley writes at Decision Desk HQ’s Substack (italics in the original):
Quick summary:
- Polls largely agree that the race is competitive. Three surveys have put the Yes side ahead by 4-to-5 percentage points, while one survey found close to an even divide among likely voters. Surveys also agree that this vote is going to mostly break down along party lines, with Democrats strongly supportive and Republicans overwhelmingly opposed.
- Yet even as the polls suggest this race could be close, the Yes side has enjoyed a huge advantage in ad spending and fundraising. As of April 16, AdImpact reported that the Yes campaign had spent $50.5 million on advertising, compared with just $19.6 million by the No side.
- More Democrats are casting votes early than Republicans, but the overall party breakdown is a somewhat redder than early votes cast in last November’s gubernatorial election. If Election Day turnout is strong and independents break solidly against the amendment, No will likely win.
For what it’s worth, in our Townhall Media editors’ meeting on Monday, someone mentioned that the ad spending was closer to $65 million from yes forces and $35 from no forces.
Skelley continues:
Despite the ramifications of the redistricting vote, only a few pollsters have surveyed the electorate’s views. And just four polls have measured the attitudes of likely voters about the ballot question without asking a number of initial questions that could affect — that is, prime — voters’ responses about their support or opposition.
All told, those polls largely agree that the race is competitive. Three of the surveys have put the Yes side ahead by 4-to-5 percentage points, while one survey has found close to even divide among likely voters. Across the four polls, Yes leads by an average of about 50%-46% — a lead, but one that is far from secure.
So the race is tight, and naturally, it will come down to turnout. It’s unusual for Virginians to have a vote on a constitutional amendment that doesn’t take place in November. It’s actually the first non-November amendment referendum since 1928.
Hopefully, sanity will prevail, and Virginians will vote for the measure to fail. November’s election of Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) was bad enough; to have an overwhelming Democratic majority representing the Old Dominion will be a disaster.
Check out live results below courtesy of our friends at DDHQ:
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