Prosecutors told a Utah judge last week that they had Tyler Robinson “captured on video” firing the fatal shot at Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk from the rooftop of Utah Valley University.
Despite the damning images and reams of additional evidence that prosecutors say tie Mr. Robinson to the Sept. 10, 2025, assassination, including DNA and his multiple confessions, wild conspiracy theories about who killed the conservative influencer have proliferated on social media.
The host of alternative theories about what might normally be a slam-dunk criminal case has created an opening for the defense team to try to cast doubt among the pool of jurors as to whether Mr. Robinson killed Kirk.
Mr. Robinson is charged with aggravated murder and faces the death penalty if convicted.
“There is a not-insignificant percentage of the population that believes that Charlie Kirk was killed by our government or a foreign government — Israel, Iran, you name it,” former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani said. “You have to lean into that if you are the defense, because their No. 1 job is to keep him alive. And all you need is one out of 12 jurors.”
An alternative shooter theory, he said, “is absolutely going to really be the only defense in this case, and it has to be.”
Some of the alternative theories blame Israeli operatives, the CIA or Kirk’s inner circle for carrying out the shooting, which took place on the UVU campus as Kirk was engaged in an exchange with students. The most fringe conspiracy theories claim, without evidence, that Kirk’s widow, Erika Kirk, was involved in the assassination or that the shooting was a hoax and Kirk was not actually killed.
A recent National Enquirer headline blared “Assassination Shocker: Iran had Charlie Kirk Killed.”
In March, former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent went public with his own Kirk conspiracy theory. He told the “Megyn Kelly Show” that there were “additional leads that we needed to run down and fully investigate, and that just simply was not done from the time that Tyler Robinson turned himself in and was arrested and his fingerprints were found on the rifle.”
Prosecutors say they have enough incriminating material to disprove alternative theories. They told Utah County Judge Tony Graf last week that the evidence points squarely at Mr. Robinson, 22, and nobody else.
Extensive video surveillance at the university captured Mr. Robinson walking around campus, climbing stairs to the rooftop and firing the fatal shot at Kirk. DNA evidence ties him directly to the gun used in the killing, Utah County prosecutor Ryan McBride told the judge on April 17.
“The experts and the reports we will present,” Mr. McBride said, “say there’s astronomical odds that this DNA belongs to anyone but the defendant.”
Mr. Robinson admitted to shooting Kirk in a note to his roommate, on a social media site and in person to a former law enforcement officer and family friend who facilitated Mr. Robinson’s surrender.
“There is substantial evidence” tying Mr. Robinson to the murder, said Mr. McBride.
The trial is not likely to start for several months.
The defense team has repeatedly asked to delay the preliminary hearing scheduled for May. Attorneys say they need additional time to review evidence, including an analysis of the bullet fragments found in Kirk’s body.
Defense attorneys said analysts at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives were unable to definitively tie the fragments to the gun that prosecutors said was used to shoot Kirk.
Although such findings are not unusual because of bullet damage, the lack of a conclusive link stirred up new claims on social media that Mr. Robinson either did not shoot the weapon or did not act alone.
“Charlie was calling for the release of the Epstein files. Charlie warned about Israel dragging us into a war with Iran. Charlie was a liability to some,” one poster on YouTube said in response to a CBS News video about the ATF’s findings.
Kirk’s inner circle, including Mrs. Kirk, denounced the conspiracy theories.
The theories began spreading on the day of the shooting. The murder was captured on video, and online sleuths immediately questioned whether an aide standing behind Kirk and talking on his cellphone at the time of the shooting was somehow involved.
Andrew Kolvet, the spokesman for Turning Point USA, called the conspiracy theories “a cottage industry that’s exploded online,” but said he believes some fringe theories are losing steam.
“It’s almost like the internet is developing antibodies to some of the crazy stuff,” he told NewsNation. “Of course, some people are not going to hear basic arguments and common sense … but I’m actually encouraged by some of the developments.”
Criminal defense lawyer Dmitry Gorin said high-profile cases frequently generate conspiracy theories, but the jury will be ordered to stick to the evidence presented at trial.
“The jury will decide the case based on the actual evidence and will be ordered not to consider information in the media and online, not presented in court,” Mr. Gorin said. “This case will come down to whether the death penalty is the appropriate punishment, rather than whether the defendant pulled the trigger, which will be proven by overwhelming evidence.”
