The midterm elections are coming up in November, and Democrats are generally favored to win the House, while the Senate is kind of a coin flip. While it would suck for Democrats to win the House because they’ll almost certainly find some bogus pretext to impeach President Donald Trump, there’s potentially more at stake regarding control of the Senate, including implications for confirming judges and potentially filling any potential Supreme Court vacancies.
No retirements have been announced, but speculation is mounting, and I’m starting to wonder if Trump knows vacancies are coming.
In a recent interview with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo, Trump confirmed he has a shortlist of potential nominees ready to go — and he’s prepared to fill as many as three seats if the opportunity arises.
“In theory, it’s two — you just read the statistics — it could be two, could be three, could be one,” Trump said. “I don’t know. I’m prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice.”
He added, “He does what’s right for the country. It’s the law, and he goes by it as much as anybody, but he gets to the point.” High praise from a president who has been, let’s say, less enthusiastic about some of his own past nominees. According to Fox News Digital, “Trump’s remarks sharpen the stakes around any potential vacancy, as the president has signaled he is ready to seize the opportunity to deepen the court’s conservative majority. With retirement speculation around Alito and Republicans eyeing the window before the 2026 midterms, the prospect of an opening is already putting fresh focus on succession politics.”
Rumors about Alito, 76, potentially retiring have grown because of his age, his two-decade tenure on the bench and speculation that he may want to make sure a conservative successor is confirmed by the current Republican-led Senate, especially before the upcoming midterm elections in which Republicans are at risk of losing or seeing a diminished majority.
The rumors were further fueled when it was revealed Alito was treated last month for dehydration after becoming ill at a Federalist Society dinner. A Supreme Court spokesperson clarified at the time that the justice was “thoroughly checked” and returned to the bench the following Monday.
A source close to Alito insists he is not stepping down this term and is in the process of hiring the rest of his clerks for the next term. So at least for now, it sounds like he’s not going anywhere.
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Yet, Trump is ready with a shortlist of replacements? Is that a tell that he knows something we don’t? It could be. Or it’s just being prepared. After watching some of his own nominees drift from his expectations on high-profile rulings, you can be certain he’ll be far more deliberate this time around. Whatever seats open up, expect Trump to treat the selection process with a level of scrutiny he may not have applied before.
The bigger picture here is worth appreciating. No president since Ronald Reagan has reshaped the Supreme Court the way Trump has. His first three appointments — Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett — built the current 6-3 conservative majority. Trump may have an opportunity to secure a conservative majority for decades to come.
The question is, does he know that he will?
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