SEOUL, South Korea — The Iranian and Ukrainian coastal defenses that have frustrated two of the world’s three most powerful navies offer timely lessons for Taiwan as it looks to fend off a potential attack by China.
Iranian vessels have shut down the critical Strait of Hormuz despite an assemblage of U.S. naval might, while Ukrainian forces in the Black Sea have embarrassed Russia’s navy by sinking its flagship.
The lesson? Outgunned and overmatched nations exploiting the latest technologies can defend coastlines and thwart advances from larger, stronger navies.
Communist-run China, with a fast-growing fleet that is ranked second globally behind only the U.S. Navy, has long claimed the smaller, democratic island of Taiwan as its province.
But Taiwan benefits from a 110-mile-wide barrier between it and the mainland — the Taiwan Strait.
That presents big problems for China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy — known as PLAN — and its clunky amphibious landing barges.
“Navies have always had to be careful when operating near defended coastlines, at least since the ’Age of the Cannon’ centuries ago,” said Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine officer with extensive experience in Indo-Pacific. “Modern surveillance systems and long-range precision weapons have made things even more dangerous, out to a much farther distance.”
The strait and the sea
A battered Iran has agreed to negotiate a peace deal after six weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. However, neither the U.S. Navy nor any allied navies have broken Tehran’s dominance of the Strait of Hormuz.
The 24-mile-wide passageway bound by Iran on the east and Oman on the west is a strategic choke point through which 20% of the world’s oil passes each year. It’s not considered part of the open high seas, but is legally recognized by U.N. charter as an “international” waterway.
Iran, however, effectively controls the strait from its littoral islands: Since the war with Israel and the U.S. began Feb. 28, Iranian weapons have hit more than 20 civilian vessels.
That is the sobering maritime reality facing U.S. admirals.
Still, the Americans have endured neither the humiliation nor the losses suffered by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at the hands of Ukraine.
Kyiv has successfully defended its southern coastline against Russian warships, obviating amphibious landings despite not fielding warships of its own.
Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, was sunk by land-based, sea-skimming anti-ship missiles in 2022. The same year, Ukraine retook the captured offshore outpost, Snake Island.
Russian surface warships have been pushed over the horizon and suffered waterborne and aerial drone and missile attacks in port. The fleet may have suffered 30% losses.
How David takes on Goliath
What Iran and Ukraine have taught the world is that modern warships are vulnerable to cheap and lethal mass-produced, disposable systems, including drone swarms.
“Everything the U.S. was trying to tell Taiwan about asymmetric approaches — to invest in large numbers of attritional systems that can deliver effect — is where it’s at,” an arms expert told The Washington Times on background. “Deliver multiples of mass via unscrewed systems that were easily applied in other theaters.”
Littoral defense demands horizontal and vertical layering.
Ideally, that layering starts underwater with sea mines, drones and attack submarines; continues on the surface with unmanned fast boats and warships; and includes an air component built around direct-fire weapons, mobile artillery, strike drones and jet fighters.
All are communicated to, data-fed and guided by satellites.
Iranian sea mines — which can be laid by civilian boats or dhows — have proven effective deterrents that play to Taipei’s core strengths.
“Taiwan leads the world in sea mine development, they produce some of the best and have been for over 70 years,” said Alexander Clarke, a naval historian and analyst.
Though the shallow Taiwan Strait is not ideal for submarine operations and Taipei lacks cutting-edge boats, minefields channel attackers.
“A minefield curves warships around it to where a sub is waiting, which can break their backs with torpedoes,” said Mr. Clarke. “And when a sub is underwater, can you tell who it belongs to?”
Last year, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi indicated to the Diet that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require Japan to enter the fight.
“Japanese diesel-electric subs are lethal,” said Mr. Clarke, praising their near silence compared to nuclear boats.
Taipei could prioritize PLAN minehunters as missile targets. Beijing could counter with maritime militia.
“China might send in its trawler fleet and trawl,” he said. “The U.K. used huge numbers of trawlers for minesweeping in World Wars 1 and II: Better to lose a trawler than a warship.”
Taiwan’s weaponized drones are less impressive.
“Quality is not up to snuff: The Ukrainians came to see them and were not impressed,” the regional arms expert told The Times. “As good as the Taiwanese are at making widgets, the indigenous drone sector is not there yet.”
One potential answer might be the U.S. miltech firm Anduril, which has opened offices in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that are tasked with sourcing and joint development. The firm has sold “Ghost Shark,” an underwater reconnaissance-strike drone, to Australia.
“That would not have the legs of a sub, but in the littoral space, could be effective,” the expert said.
Taiwan can also take a cue from the Ukrainians, who used onshore firepower to make Snake Island untenable for Russia.
In 2025, Taiwan announced its biggest-ever arms purchase, a package including U.S. Abrams tanks, 155mm mobile howitzers and mobile rocket launchers, known as HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System).
Taiwan’s doctrine presupposes that China will target prepositioned assets. But mobile weapons offer “shoot and scoot” options.
“Mobile coastal artillery and mobile launch rockets and HIMARS systems are potentially very good against ships — reaching across the strait,” Mr. Newsham said. “These systems can be hard for an attacker to locate — or harder than you’d think.”
At close range, hull-down tanks provide pinpoint direct fire.
“Amphibious shipping is basically big spaces full of fuel and ammo which, if they get hit by a tank round, are going to go ‘boom,’” said Mr. Clarke. “Tanks can create fortified positions, so when troops come ashore, they pre-fire at that box, then the tank moves and the enemy, caught out, is annihilated.”
Taiwan concerns
Satellites are problematic for Taiwan, which lacks a sovereign constellation.
“You need good surveillance, sensors and targeting systems so you can see where enemy ships, subs, and aircraft are located,” warned Mr. Newsham. “They have to track out… across the Strait and well inside China.”
At ground level, Taiwan may be unable to rely on Starlink Internet terminals, as Ukraine does.
“I’d be surprised that could be an option,” the arms expert said, citing Starlink owner Elon Musk’s extensive business ties with China.
China, however, has its own satellite-related vulnerability.
“A dirty secret: drones are satellite-intensive,” said Mr. Clarke. “About two months before [an attack] we would see about a 50% increase in communications satellite launches; that would be visible.”
A concern related to the Iran conflict is the U.S. depletion of high-tech arms stocks, which could undercut any swift re-pivot to the Indo-Pacific.
“It is public knowledge that limited U.S. magazine depth has been depleted,” said the arms expert.
Take Japan. The democratic island nation, home to 50,000 U.S. troops, covers Taiwan’s north-eastern approaches and dominates naval chokepoints.
But according to reports that emerged last week, the delivery of 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles to Japan is on indefinite hold due to massed U.S. use against Iran.
More broadly, the current superiority of coastal defense over naval offense may not be sustained.
“Whenever someone says ’such-and-such’ is simply impossible in warfare, you should have considerable doubt,” warned Mr. Newsham. “Countermeasures for every system — defensive or offensive — eventually appear.”
