How confusing is this “ceasefire” between the U.S. and Iran currently in effect, supposedly for the next two weeks, and why is everyone still shooting at one another?
“Well, there is a ceasefire. Or perhaps not,” writes old Middle East hand Elliot Abrams in The Free Press.
“It includes Lebanon. Or it doesn’t. Iran’s 10-point plan is an acceptable working document for the United States. Or it isn’t the one U.S. negotiators saw. The Strait of Hormuz will be open. Or passage requires Iranian approval and a toll,” he observes.
Donald Trump agreed to stop attacking Iran, and Iran agreed to stop attacking Israel and its Gulf neighbors and open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has kept up his end of the deal. Iran has not, but the U.S. is pretending Iran is in compliance. When Saudi Arabia complained that a refinery had been targeted by Iranian drones, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said simply that “troops out in remote locations” who didn’t know about the ceasefire yet were responsible.
The confusion over Lebanon is partly Israel’s fault, given that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims he never agreed to a cease-fire for Lebanon. Iran never claimed during negotiations that Lebanon would be included in any ceasefire deal, either. Now they say it is and won’t attend the Friday negotiating session unless Israel agrees.
Trump stated that Iran’s ten-point plan “is a workable basis on which to negotiate,” only to have his press secretary Karoline Leavitt claim in a Wednesday press conference that Iran’s plan “was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded,” and that Trump had accepted a secret ten-point plan that the administration felt necessary to keep under wraps.
And the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. It never opened. If anything, Iran has dug in its heels on the concept that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls access to the Strait and is entitled to charge tolls for ships that wish to pass. Lloyd’s List, a shipping industry journal, reported Wednesday afternoon that only three ships had transited Hormuz since the ceasefire.
An accounting of gains and losses for the United States is therefore temporary and incomplete. If the ceasefire really breaks down (for instance, because Iran insists that Israel stop responding to Hezbollah attacks, which Israel will not do) the president will have to do something more than the air attacks of last week. That will mean a broader bombing campaign which, though it will not destroy Iranian civilization, will destroy a number of bridges and power plants. That should not be surprising or unacceptable, because Iran spent the first hours after the ceasefire announcement attacking power and desalination plants and oil sites in the Arab Gulf countries. Or, Trump might decide the time has come to seize some islands in the Gulf. This would all be unwelcome for Trump, who wants the war over, the stock market up, and oil prices steadily (if slowly) descending. He will only do it if the Iranian regime leaves him no other choice.
As badly as Trump wants the war to be over, he can’t end it as it currently stands. Abrams believes that “at the end of two weeks allotted for negotiations, two more weeks will be allotted, and then two more.” I don’t think Trump will string these ceasefire talks out for very long. Donald Trump is going to go big before he goes home. What that means is anyone’s guess, but it certainly won’t be good for Iran.
Exclusively for our VIPs: Pyrrhic Victory? The Strait of Hormuz Is Still Closed and Iran Still Controls It
The religious fanatics who were previously in charge have been replaced by Iranian nationalist fanatics in the IRGC. This is not “regime change.” The IRGC fanatics running Iran were responsible for the 35,000 Iranian protesters gunned down in the streets.
Add to that the fact that Iranian communications have been smashed, and a paranoia approaching hysteria, never seen in a modern state, afflicts the current leaders in Iran, and we’re a long way from any real “ceasefire.” I think we can expect another round of fighting with both Israel and the U.S. upping the ante in Lebanon and on Iranian infrastructure.
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