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Thursday’s Final Word – HotAir

The candles blew and then disappeared, the curtains flew, and then tabs appeared





Ed: The second interview subject sounds like everyone’s toxic ex-girlfriend. When pressed about what Trump did to make himself a king, she offers a form of “if you don’t already know, I’m not going to tell you.” These aren’t just randos on the street, either; these are people who chose to demonstrate and cannot coherently explain why. “No Kings” is the dumbest protest ever. 

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Eli Lake at The Free Press: In his widely anticipated speech to the nation, President Donald Trump said we were winning, without declaring victory. He boasted that military objectives were met ahead of schedule, but offered no date to end the war. “Tonight, Iran’s navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, most of them,” Trump said, “are now dead.” Nevertheless, the war must go on. “We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong,” he said. “In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.” …

America has never had a wartime leader who spoke like that. Just consider his peroration on the unexpected regime change American and Israeli arms have already achieved: “Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death,” he said. “They’re all dead.”

All of this was good news for Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf states. They have counseled Trump to stay on his journey until the mission is accomplished. For the nervous markets and isolationists in his own party, Trump does not sound like he intends to TACO.





Ed: I don’t think he intends to TACO either, but he may choose at some point to end the operational phase of the war and see whether the Iranian regime will negotiate. That would be a mistake, as the regime is now entering the “pursuit phase” of military defeat, as our next entry details:

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Pursuit is the phase which follows a breakthrough designed to catch or cut off a hostile force that is attempting to escape (retrograde), with the aim of destroying it before it can reorganize or establish a new defensive position. It begins when the enemy breaks contact and tries to withdraw, often after losing cohesion.

Pursuit is often one of the most decisive and destructive phases for the enemy when executed effectively, because the retreating force is highly vulnerable. It’s the payoff phase. To achieve a breakthrough only to call off pursuit is basically to let Blofeld escape in the final reel so there’ll be a sequel.

Ed: Click through to read the rest. The impulse to dial back down to symmetric response is understandable, but self-defeating. Having started this war, Trump needs to see it all the way through to the end. The Saudis and Israelis certainly understand that, and in this case, there are few “sanctuary” options for regime leaders other than the full-exile route. 





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Iran InternationalEfforts by Masoud [Pezeshkian] to appoint a new intelligence minister last Thursday collapsed under direct pressure from IRGC chief-commander Ahmad Vahidi, sources with knowledge of the situation told Iran International.

All proposed candidates, including Hossein Dehghan, were rejected. Vahidi is said to have insisted that, given wartime conditions, all critical and sensitive leadership positions must be selected and managed directly by the IRGC until further notice.

Under Iran’s political system, presidents have traditionally nominated intelligence ministers only after securing the approval of the Supreme Leader, who holds ultimate authority over key security portfolios.

However, with the condition and whereabouts of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei unclear in recent weeks, the IRGC is now effectively blocking the president from advancing its preferred candidate, further consolidating its grip over the state’s security apparatus.

Pezeshkian has repeatedly sought an urgent meeting with Mojtaba Khamenei in recent days, but all requests have gone unanswered, with no contact established.

Ed: Given the rigid nature of the regime and their need to keep such matters secret, we cannot be sure that these are reliable reports. However, they do fit the known fact pattern, especially in regard to the mystery around Nepo Babytollah. People forget that the mullahs set up the IRGC and the civil government in parallel, with both answering to the Supreme Leader. By keeping Mojtaba secluded, or pretending he’s alive when he’s actually either dead or disabled, the IRGC keeps power solely in its own hands – and that will produce a fracture sooner or later. 





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Ed: See below.

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Ed: This is a signal to both sides of the regime that the US is prepared to go after mixed-use infrastructure if this war persists, rather than exclusively on infrastructure primarily supporting IRGC and Basij functions. Iran undoubtedly has many such critical-use points in its civic infrastructure. That will escalate pressure on Pezeshkian and the parliament to get control of the IRGC. 

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Ed: She’s the first “grand strategy” expert I’ve run across who failed to grasp the strategic and tactical significance of ground lines of communication (GLOC). Maybe Professor Kelanic can start by studying the origin and motivation behind the Eisenhower Interstate Highway system. Or at least she can muse on the wisdom of this proverb: It is far better to shut one’s mouth and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.  

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Mark Penn at the NY Post: In short — the price of the Iran war is much, much less than the benefits it provides. …





America had oil prices over $100 a barrel for 3.5 years while Barack Obama was president and the press yawned. And even for four months during 2022 when Russia invaded the Ukraine, oil was at similar levels, reaching a peak of $128 without the Armageddon-like headlines.

And many of those politicians suddenly complaining about these price increases have for years been behind policies deliberately engineered to raise and tax them.

At the same time, preventing Iran from continuing to build up its military and nuclear arsenal could save trillions of dollars of future costs.

The costs of the 9/11 attack by 24 terrorists has been estimated at between $3.3 trillion and $8 trillion. Heading off Iran’s capabilities now rather than waiting until it is too late could have savings of similar if not greater magnitude.

Ed: This is a great point, and one which I wish Trump had made at greater length last night and every day of this war. Trump did mention that Iran’s threats had added a significant cost to oil for the last couple of decades, albeit somewhat buried in pricing. Ending the threat from Iran’s regime permanently would allow oil to get priced for transport through a region largely aligned for peace rather than for conflict, with the US the clear guarantor of access for the next several decades. 

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City Journal: California is a cash machine. The state collects some of the country’s highest income, business, and fuel taxes, and now spends more than $300 billion per year. And yet, everywhere you look, California seems to be falling apart.





The roads are crumbling. Mismanaged wildfires have turned neighborhoods into ash. Drug addiction and homelessness have metastasized, turning parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco into no-go zones. And the cost-of-living crisis is pricing middle-class taxpayers out of basic necessities like groceries and gas, even as the state spends billions on welfare programs that never seem to lift anyone out of poverty.

Californians are beginning to ask: Where is all this money going? On paper, it funds hospitals, universities, schools, prisons, infrastructure, and other public services. But beneath the surface, something else is happening that California Governor Gavin Newsom does not want you to see: massive, systematic, brazen fraud.

Ed: A must-read essay for all today. Minnesota is the minor league for fraud. Newsom’s the All-Star game. 

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Ed: I’m posting this because (a) it’s awesome, and (b) this is the actual and original clip. An altered version in which the boy uses the Oooooohhhh fuuuuuuuuuuudge word spread like wildfire on social media, but there’s no need for his mom to pull out the Lifebuoy or to blame Schwartz. And it’s a great reaction to a truly awesome effort. 

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Ed: I’m seeing suggestions for Mike Lee online as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lee got the nod, although I might be surprised if he took the job. He’s got a Senate seat for as long as he wants it. DeSantis would be interesting, but he’s got almost a full year in office left to go and he hasn’t seemed to be pushing for a role in this administration. Zeldin may be the best choice. 

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