The message is clear … this has become the Year of the Real Thing. And this may be the weekend when the Iranian regime experiences it fully.
Earlier this morning, Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth spoke during a Cabinet meeting open to the press about the progress in the war with Iran. Trump has tried to offer Iran a negotiated way out of the conflict, but on clear terms offered before it: no nuclear proliferation, surrendering all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, limits on missile systems. and an end to funding terrorism through proxies. Trump has added a term since the beginning of the war to bar Iran from threatening traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As noted earlier, Iran’s regime remnants have offered conflicting responses to this offer, but none of them suggest that the regime will seriously consider these demands.
Chief negotiator Steven Witkoff warned Iran not to repeat its mistakes in earlier talks:
Steve Witkoff on Iran: We have told Iran one last thing: don’t miscalculate again. pic.twitter.com/d7Ljx54KYJ
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 26, 2026
Hegseth told the Cabinet that he “prays for a deal,” but in the meantime, the Pentagon negotiates “by other means”:
.@SECWAR on Iran: “We pray for a deal, and we welcome a deal… In the meantime, the Department of War will continue negotiating with bombs.” pic.twitter.com/zQWoGdgGQB
— Salem News Channel (@WatchSalemNews) March 26, 2026
Indeed; this has been the case all along. The negotiations with Iran, such as they may be, have not stopped the hostilities or even paused them. This negotiation relates only to the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively shut down over the past four weeks with attacks on shipping and threats to expand those strikes. The US and Israel has threatened to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure unless it stops threatening traffic through the Strait, and that ultimatum comes into force tomorrow night unless Iran’s regime remnants comply or agree to end the conflict on Trump’s terms.
Iran apparently has attempted to get Trump to lighten his demands with a “big gift,” which Trump referenced yesterday. This morning, Trump revealed that the gift was safe passage for eight to ten oil tankers through the Strait, a potential show not only of good faith but the ability to deliver on promises in talks:
NEW: President Trump said Iran’s “big present” to the U.S. was allowing 8–10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/r9kOl4KBLv
— Salem News Channel (@WatchSalemNews) March 26, 2026
How much oil would those carry? The Greek tanker Shenlong Suezmax successfully passed through the Strait two weeks ago carrying one million barrels of crude. Assuming that as a benchmark, that would mean we got 10 million barrels out of the Persian Gulf, which is approximately one-half day’s worth of shipping through Hormuz under normal circumstances. That’s a significant confidence-builder for talks, which is why Trump claims to be convinced he’s talking to the “right” people, but it’s not nearly enough to return oil prices to their pre-war levels. In fact, the price of oil is sticking around the $100/barrel mark.
With the Hormuz ultimatum deadline approaching, the question will be what Trump will order on the other side of it. The US has built up its assets even further this week, with the USS Tripoli task force entering the theater in the next few hours and the USS Boxer group not far behind. The 82nd Airborne has deployed as well, making the threat of boots on the ground look more certain … but where? Analysts have pointed to Kharg Island as the top target, given its control of Iran’s oil sales, but Axios’ Barak Ravid reports that the targets may be closer to the Strait itself for the Pentagon’s “massive final blow” of the war:
The Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge. …
In interviews with Axios, officials and sources familiar with the internal discussions describe four major “final blow” options Trump could choose from:
- Invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.
- Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic outpost hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft that can blow up cargo ships and radars that monitor movements in the strait.
- Seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE.
- Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait.
Kharg Island is the most valuable long-term strategic target. Even if we have to come to terms with the regime remnants to end the conflict, control of Kharg’s export facilities ensures that we can strangle the regime if they do not comply. That has always been a high-profile target. If the Pentagon wants to focus more on the traffic through the strait, options 2 and 3 may make more tactical and short-term strategic success. Booting Iran out of both would also prevent Iran from creating havoc through those passages now and for the foreseeable future. Option 4 is probably a no-go, given that those tankers belong to China and India, and seizing them would likely expand and escalate matters in ways Trump and Hegseth would prefer to avoid.
Could the US do all three options at the same time? We could if we had sufficient mobilization of ground forces, but that’s a political land mine for Trump. Having two amphibious carriers on hand would give us sufficient support, but unless we had a massively successful bombing campaign first, seizing and keeping all of these islands at once would be difficult and bloody.
Now, however, Iran’s regime remnants need to plan for all of these scenarios. They no longer have a navy or air force to put into the defense of even one of the targets. Their naval command was wiped out last night in a meeting, likely called to deal with the threat posed by the US against these critical assets. Their rapidly dwindling assets and personnel will have to get stretched across all risks while the US can afford to choose one or more targets at our convenience.
And the clock is ticking on all of these islands in the stream, because the Iranians know now that we’ve got something going on.
Note: My apologies to the lovely Ms. Parton and the late Mr. Rogers for the headline reference.
